Live Play Data

Chain Reaction

· Sorcery · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1130

Decks Running

572

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

53%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

34% of tracked games where Chain Reaction resolved ended in a win for the caster. That is +9.7 percentage points above the win rate in games where it stayed in the library, across 124 cast observations.

Chain Reaction sits in 6% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, a niche position that reflects its conditional power: the more creatures on the battlefield, the more lethal it becomes. Across 1084 tracked multiplayer games, it has been cast 132 times with a median first-cast turn of 7.0.

The win-rate signal is the most striking figure in the data. Games where Chain Reaction resolved produced a win for the caster at 34%, compared to 25% in games where it remained in the library. That +9.7 pp lift clears its own standard error, making it one of the cleaner early signals we track. Both sample sizes are meaningful: 124 cast observations and 770 library observations. Still, Playgroup Live's dataset is growing, and we label this directional rather than conclusive.

Chain Reaction appears most often under red-heavy commanders that either flood the board themselves or expect opponents to do so. Rootha, Mastering the Moment and Auntie Ool, Cursewretch lead the top-commander list, suggesting players value the card both as a board wipe and as a copy target. It is a late-game tool: the median cast lands on turn 7.0, well past most early ramp windows, and 10% of casts landed exactly on the 4-mana curve turn.

At a glance

6% of tracked Commander decks include Chain Reaction
22% draw rate across tracked participations
53% of drawn copies reached the stack before the game ended
T7.0 median first-cast turn, skewing toward mid-to-late game
+9.7pp win-rate lift when cast vs. when it stayed in the library
499 distinct players have brought Chain Reaction to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=132

13%

59%

T6-9

18%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 20

On curve 10% (8 / 132 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 27%

The "good card" funnel

1133 brought · 499 players

Brought to game

1133

Ever drawn

249

Reached battlefield

132

Still on board at game end

53%

Of 1133 Chain Reactions brought to games, 249 were drawn, 132 of those were cast, and as a sorcery it resolves and moves immediately to the graveyard rather than staying on the battlefield.

≥ +1.2pp

Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=124) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=770).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=110) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +9.7pp; 95% confidence interval +1.2pp to +18.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

275 instances

1.1%

Library

3.3%

Battlefield

53.1%

Graveyard

9.1%

Exile

Almost all Chain Reactions finish the game in the graveyard after resolving, with a small number stranded in hand. The near-zero library count confirms that very few tracked copies went completely uninteracted with once drawn.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans mono-red, Izzet, Jund, and Gruul identities, showing Chain Reaction is not locked to one archetype but clusters around commanders that either copy spells or generate wide boards.

Card text

Chain Reaction

Sorcery

Chain Reaction deals X damage to each creature, where X is the number of creatures on the battlefield.

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Gustavo Pelissari

Frequently Asked

How often is Chain Reaction drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1084 tracked multiplayer games where Chain Reaction was in the deck, it was drawn 22% of the time. That is consistent with what you would expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 249 instances that reached a player's hand, 53% were cast before the game ended. Drawn copies that were not cast mostly reflect games that ended before the player found the right moment, not a deliberate hold.

What turn does Chain Reaction typically get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 7.0, with the distribution running from turn 3 at the earliest to turn 20 at the latest. The p25-p75 range sits between turns 6 and 9, so the card functions squarely as a mid-to-late-game board wipe. Only 10% of casts landed exactly on the 4-mana curve turn, which is expected for a spell that requires a board state to be worth casting.

Does casting Chain Reaction actually improve your win rate?

In 124 participations where Chain Reaction reached the stack, the caster's win rate was 34%. In 770 participations where it never left the library, that rate was 25%. The +9.7 pp gap clears its standard error, which is an early positive signal. We call it directional: Playgroup Live is still growing its dataset, so treat this as a meaningful pattern to watch rather than a settled verdict.

Which commanders use Chain Reaction most?

Rootha, Mastering the Moment and Auntie Ool, Cursewretch top the list in tracked multiplayer games. Rootha players likely value Chain Reaction as a copy target: doubling a board wipe that scales with creature count can end a game outright. Auntie Ool decks tend to go wide with tokens, which means either clearing opponents' boards or accepting some self-damage. The spread across 499 unique players suggests no single archetype dominates the data.

Is Chain Reaction legal in Commander?

Yes. Chain Reaction is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Oathbreaker, and PreDH. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Pauper, Alchemy, Historic, Brawl, or Timeless. There is no ban or restriction in Commander, making it freely available as a red board wipe option.

How concentrated is the Chain Reaction data across players?

The data is well spread. 499 distinct players have brought Chain Reaction to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 22% of all instances. That low concentration means the numbers are not skewed by one or two prolific users, which adds some confidence to the directional signals we report.