Live Play Data

Chandra's Ignition

· Sorcery · The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander (LCC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

957

Decks Running

465

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

61%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

48% of games where Chandra's Ignition resolved ended in a win for the caster, a +23.2 percentage-point lift over the baseline, the largest positive signal in our red sorcery dataset.

Chandra's Ignition is a five-mana red sorcery that scales with creature power, and the win-rate data reflects exactly that upside. Across 899 tracked multiplayer games, decks that resolved it won 48% of the time, compared to 25% for games where the card sat untouched in the library. That +23.2 percentage-point gap is one of the clearest directional signals in our dataset for a non-staple card.

The card sits in 465 of 6996 tracked decks, an inclusion rate of 7%. That puts it firmly in the role of a build-around rather than a generic include: players who put it in their 99 are optimizing around high-power creatures that can weaponize the effect. Median first cast lands on turn 7, which lines up with the curve of decks that need a large creature in play before the spell does real work.

61% of drawn copies reached the battlefield before the game ended. The card clusters most heavily around Pantlaza, Sun-Favored, pointing to a Dinosaur-tribal archetype that reliably fields the power needed to make Ignition a board-clear and a finisher in one shot.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Chandra's Ignition
48% win rate when cast, against a 25% baseline
+23.2pp win-rate lift over games where the card was never played
T7 median first-cast turn
61% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
416 distinct players have brought Chandra's Ignition to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=145

14%

63%

T6-9

17%

T10+

Median 7 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 14

On curve 20% (20 / 145 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

961 brought · 416 players

Brought to game

961

Ever drawn

237

Reached battlefield

145

Still on board at game end

61%

Of 961 copies brought to games, 237 were drawn and 145 of those were cast, a funnel that reflects both the singleton lottery and the need to set up a large creature before firing.

≥ +14.6pp

Players who cast this card win 48% of the time (n=134) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=616).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=84) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +23.2pp; 95% confidence interval +14.6pp to +31.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

263 instances

1.1%

Library

12.2%

Battlefield

45.2%

Graveyard

10.3%

Exile

Almost all Chandra's Ignitions end the game in the graveyard after resolving, as expected for a sorcery. The small handful on the battlefield are tokens or copy effects, not the original card staying in play.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Pantlaza, Sun-Favored 57 decks
2 Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid 16 decks
3 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 15 decks
4 Vivi Ornitier 14 decks
5 Wolverine, Best There Is 14 decks
6 Sauron, the Dark Lord 11 decks
7 Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom 11 decks
8 Feather, the Redeemed 10 decks
9 Lightning, Army of One 10 decks
10 Maarika, Brutal Gladiator 10 decks

Pantlaza, Sun-Favored dominates the top-commander list by a wide margin, reflecting how naturally high-power Dinosaur bodies enable a one-sided wipe. The remaining commanders are spread across creature-centric red strategies.

Frequently Asked

How often is Chandra's Ignition drawn in a Commander game?

In 899 tracked multiplayer games where Chandra's Ignition was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That draw rate is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 237 copies that reached a player's hand, 61% were cast before the game ended. The remainder reflects games that concluded before the player could deploy a large enough creature or find the mana.

What does the win-rate lift actually mean?

Decks that resolved Chandra's Ignition won 48% of those games. Decks where the card never moved from the library won 25% of those games. The +23.2 percentage-point gap is a directional signal that casting the card correlates with winning. The sample has 134 cast observations and 616 library observations. The lower-bound confidence interval stays positive, which makes this one of the stronger directional effects in our red sorcery data, though the dataset is still growing.

What turn does Chandra's Ignition usually get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 7, with the distribution concentrated between turns 5 and 9. The card has a mana value of 5 and an on-curve rate of 20%, meaning most casts land after the earliest possible turn. That is largely a function of the card being drawn mid-game rather than opened in hand, and of players waiting for a suitably powerful creature before pulling the trigger.

Which commanders run Chandra's Ignition most often?

Pantlaza, Sun-Favored leads the tracked dataset by a wide margin, which makes sense: Dinosaurs naturally scale to large power values, turning Ignition into a one-sided board wipe that also kills opponents directly. Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls and Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid round out the top three in the multiplayer data, both creature-centric strategies that need efficient ways to push through damage.

Is Chandra's Ignition legal in Commander?

Yes. Chandra's Ignition is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Its mono-red color identity means it can fit into any Commander deck with red in the color identity.

How concentrated is the data across players?

416 distinct players have brought Chandra's Ignition to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for 25% of all instances. That spread is healthy: the win-rate signal is not being driven by a single prolific player's results, which adds confidence to the directional findings even on a dataset of this size.