Chthonian Nightmare
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Chthonian Nightmare
Final zone distribution
96 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel
20 decks
-
2
Uugguu, the Omniplasm
13 decks
-
3
The Great Goblin
10 decks
-
4
Teval, the Balanced Scale
9 decks
-
5
Teysa Karlov
8 decks
-
6
Blech, Loafing Pest
5 decks
-
7
Meren of Clan Nel Toth
5 decks
-
8
Rakdos, the Muscle
5 decks
-
9
Vren, the Relentless
5 decks
-
10
Caesar, Legion's Emperor
4 decks
The "good card" funnel
397 brought · 183 playersOnce cast, 43% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=35) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=222).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=32).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap -0.6pp; 95% confidence interval -9.6pp to +8.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.