City on Fire
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
City on Fire
Final zone distribution
81 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Krenko, Mob Boss
17 decks
-
2
Kratos, God of War
16 decks
-
3
Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied
11 decks
-
4
Ovika, Enigma Goliath
11 decks
-
5
Bello, Bard of the Brambles
10 decks
-
6
Karlach, Fury of Avernus
9 decks
-
7
Arabella, Abandoned Doll
7 decks
-
8
Jaws, Relentless Predator
5 decks
-
9
Norin the Wary
5 decks
-
10
Smaug the Impenetrable
5 decks
The "good card" funnel
491 brought · 194 playersOnce cast, 88% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=28) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=315).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=33) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +4.7pp; 95% confidence interval -4.8pp to +14.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
First-cast turn
n=34Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.