Combustible Gearhulk
Combustible Gearhulk is cast in 59% of games where it's drawn, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0. Decks that resolved it show a +10.5 percentage-point win-rate lift over decks where it stayed in the library.
Combustible Gearhulk sits in 3% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. Across 824 multiplayer games, 120 copies have resolved, and decks that cast it show a win rate +10.5 percentage points above decks where it never left the library. That is an early but consistent signal that the card does real work when it lands.
The card's engine is its enter-the-battlefield trigger: the targeted opponent chooses between handing you three cards or eating damage equal to the combined mana values of three milled cards. In a Commander deck packed with high-cost spells and artifacts, neither option is comfortable for them. That tension is what attracts builders running high-average-mana-value lists. The 19% same-turn cast rate reflects a 6-mana spell that takes deliberate setup. Players who draw it typically hold it for an average of roughly 3 turns while assembling the mana to fire it off.
Concentration is healthy: 360 distinct players have brought Combustible Gearhulk to tracked games, with no single player accounting for more than a small fraction of observations. The spread of commanders in the top-10 list, ranging from Rakdos artifact commanders to mono-red artifact strategies, confirms this is not a one-deck card.
- 3% of tracked Commander decks include Combustible Gearhulk
- 59% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
- T7.0 median first-cast turn, deep in the midgame
- 51% battlefield stickiness once it resolves
- +10.5pp win-rate lift for decks that cast it vs. decks where it stays in the library
- 360 distinct players tracked, spread across many commander archetypes
First-cast turn
n=120The "good card" funnel
853 brought · 360 playersOf 853 Combustible Gearhulks brought to tracked games, 203 were drawn, 120 of those were cast, and roughly half of those resolved copies remained on the battlefield through end of game.
Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=115) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=527).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=74) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +10.5pp; 95% confidence interval +2.4pp to +18.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
232 instancesMost Combustible Gearhulk copies that never leave the library reflect the structural reality of a 100-card singleton deck. The cards that do emerge split roughly between battlefield survival and graveyard, which tracks with active removal targeting a 6/6 first striker.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
58 decks
-
2
Terra, Herald of Hope
46 decks
-
3
Dr. Eggman
36 decks
-
4
Kardur, Doomscourge
21 decks
-
5
Tannuk, Steadfast Second
15 decks
-
6
Saheeli, Radiant Creator
12 decks
-
7
Satya, Aetherflux Genius
11 decks
-
8
Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man
9 decks
-
9
Alena, Kessig Trapper
6 decks
-
10
Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno
6 decks
The top-10 commander list spans Rakdos, Mardu, Grixis, and mono-red strategies, signaling that Combustible Gearhulk earns its slot wherever red decks trend toward high mana values rather than in any single niche archetype.