Live Play Data

Crib Swap

· Kindred Instant — Shapeshifter · Lorwyn Eclipsed (ECL)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

433

Decks Running

228

Median Cast Turn

6.5

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=68

18%

57%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 6.5 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14

On curve 3% (2 / 68 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 20%

The "good card" funnel

433 brought · 207 players

Brought to game

433

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -1.5pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=63) , vs 18% when it never left the library (n=276).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=26).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +9.2pp; 95% confidence interval -1.5pp to +19.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

112 instances

4.5%

Library

2.7%

Battlefield

66.1%

Graveyard

8.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Crib Swap

Kindred Instant — Shapeshifter

Changeling (This card is every creature type.) Exile target creature. Its controller creates a 1/1 colorless Shapeshifter creature token with changeling.

Lorwyn Eclipsed (ECL) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Pete Venters

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 670,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.