collections_bookmark Part of Murders at Karlov Manor
Crime Novelist card art
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Crime Novelist

{2} {R} · Creature — Goblin Bard · Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM)
1%
Decklist Inclusion
Times Brought
166
Decks Running
84
In Decks
624
Decklist Inclusion
1%
Format

Final zone distribution

44 instances
2.3%
Library
38.6%
Battlefield
18.2%
Graveyard
13.6%
Exile

The "good card" funnel

168 brought · 83 players
Brought to game
168
Ever drawn
39
Reached battlefield
26
Still on board at game end
17

Once cast, 65% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -8.8pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=25) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=114).

Observed gap +9.7pp; 95% confidence interval -8.8pp to +28.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=26
0%
T1
4%
T2
4%
T3
23%
T4
8%
T5
54%
T6-9
8%
T10+
Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 6 · max 13
On curve 8% (1 / 26 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 27%
26 of 100 times cast 26%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.