Crime Novelist
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Crime Novelist
Final zone distribution
72 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Mr. House, President and CEO
32 decks
-
2
Smaug the Impenetrable
27 decks
-
3
Ragost, Deft Gastronaut
17 decks
-
4
Jaws, Relentless Predator
14 decks
-
5
Smaug the Magnificent
13 decks
-
6
Evereth, Viceroy of Plunder
10 decks
-
7
Prosper, Tome-Bound
10 decks
-
8
Roxanne, Starfall Savant
9 decks
-
9
Smaug, Wicked Worm
8 decks
-
10
Ognis, the Dragon's Lash
6 decks
The "good card" funnel
424 brought · 203 playersOnce cast, 44% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=29) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=267).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=24).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +8.6pp; 95% confidence interval -0.4pp to +17.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.