Live Play Data

Deduce

· Instant · Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

131

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

—

Drawn → Played

54%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=19

Not enough observed casts yet to show a reliable distribution.

The "good card" funnel

131 brought · 68 players

Brought to game

131

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ +4.7pp

Players who cast this card win 50% of the time (n=18) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=82).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 10% (n=15).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +28.1pp; 95% confidence interval +4.7pp to +51.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

39 instances

2.6%

Library

53.8%

Graveyard

7.7%

Exile

35.9%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Namor the Sub-Mariner 4 decks
2 The Watcher in the Water 4 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 2 decks
4 Lazav, Wearer of Faces 2 decks
5 Lonis, Cryptozoologist 2 decks
6 Malcolm, Keen-Eyed Navigator 2 decks
7 Michelangelo, the Heart 2 decks
8 Morska, Undersea Sleuth 2 decks
9 Oneirophage 2 decks
10 The Mechanist, Aerial Artisan 2 decks

Card text

Deduce

Instant

Draw a card. Investigate. (Create a Clue token. It's an artifact with " {2}

, Sacrifice this token: Draw a card.")

Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM) · Common · Illustrated by Quintin Gleim

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.