Live Play Data

Experiment Twelve

· Creature — Elf Lizard Warrior · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

171

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

80%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=40

13%

25%

48%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 7 · max 11

On curve 23% (5 / 40 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

171 brought · 52 players

Brought to game

171

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 60% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -2.2pp

Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=39) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=109).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +14.0pp; 95% confidence interval -2.2pp to +30.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

54 instances

1.9%

Library

44.4%

Battlefield

27.8%

Graveyard

9.3%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Experiment Twelve

Creature — Elf Lizard Warrior

Trample Whenever this creature or another creature you control is turned face up, put +1/+1 counters on that creature equal to its power. Disguise {4}

(You may cast this card face down for {3}

as a 2/2 creature with ward {2}

. Turn it face up any time for its disguise cost.)

4 / 4

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Michele Giorgi

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.