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Fateful Discovery card art
Live Play Data

Fateful Discovery

{3} {U} {U} · Enchantment · The Hobbit (HOB)
1%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
838
Decks Running
314
Median Cast Turn
7
Drawn → Played
53%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=115
0%
T1
0%
T2
3%
T3
10%
T4
17%
T5
62%
T6-9
10%
T10+
Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 13
On curve 29% (19 / 115 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 39%

The "good card" funnel

838 brought · 269 players
Brought to game
838
Ever drawn
217
Reached battlefield
115
Still on board at game end
93

Once cast, 81% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +11.0pp

Players who cast this card win 44% of the time (n=107) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=533).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=95).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +20.5pp; 95% confidence interval +11.0pp to +30.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

232 instances
3.9%
Library
40.1%
Battlefield
20.3%
Graveyard
4.7%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games
Card text
Fateful Discovery card

Fateful Discovery

{3} {U} {U}
Enchantment
Whenever an artifact you control enters, draw a card.
The Hobbit (HOB) · Mythic · Illustrated by Irvin Rodriguez

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.