Live Play Data

Fierce Guardianship

· Instant · Commander Masters (CMM)

14%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1740

Decks Running

837

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

61%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

14% of tracked Commander decks run Fierce Guardianship. When it's drawn, 61% of copies reach the stack, with a median first-cast turn of 7.

Fierce Guardianship sits in 14% of the 5779 distinct Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, appearing across 837 decklists. Its free-cast clause, active any time you control a commander, makes it one of blue's most reliable interaction pieces regardless of how far the game has progressed.

Of 454 times the card entered a player's hand, 61% reached the stack as a cast spell. That number reflects both deliberate timing decisions and games that ended before a held copy could be used. Median first cast lands on turn 7, late enough that the free-cast rider is almost always live. Only 4% of casts landed on curve at mana value 3, meaning players are almost never paying the full {{2}{U}}: they're holding it as reactive protection and casting it for free.

The card is spread across 533 distinct players in the dataset, with the single heaviest contributor accounting for just 4% of all tracked instances. That breadth lends the numbers reasonable directional weight across a wide range of playgroups and deck archetypes.

At a glance

14% of tracked Commander decks include Fierce Guardianship
61% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T7 median first-cast turn, well past when the free-cast clause is active
4% on-curve rate, confirming players almost never pay the full mana cost
533 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
26% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck

First-cast turn

n=277

21%

55%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 16

On curve 4% (5 / 277 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 27%

The "good card" funnel

1741 brought · 533 players

Brought to game

1741

Ever drawn

454

Reached battlefield

277

Still on board at game end

61%

Of 1741 copies brought to games, 454 were drawn, 277 of those were cast, and nearly all resolved into the graveyard as intended for a counterspell.

≥ +2.0pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=262) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=1126).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=167) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.7pp; 95% confidence interval +2.0pp to +13.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

507 instances

5.7%

Library

3.4%

Battlefield

52.3%

Graveyard

6.9%

Exile

Most copies end the game in the graveyard after resolving, which is exactly what you want from a reactive instant: cast for free, counter a threat, and move on.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 24 decks
2 Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man 14 decks
3 Vivi Ornitier 13 decks
4 Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge 12 decks
5 Fire Lord Azula 12 decks
6 Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow 12 decks
7 Ashling, the Limitless 10 decks
8 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 10 decks
9 Kotis, the Fangkeeper 10 decks
10 Bruce Banner // The Incredible Hulk 9 decks

No single commander dominates the list. Fierce Guardianship appears across mono-blue, two-color, and five-color archetypes at similar deck counts, reflecting how broadly its free-cast clause applies.

Frequently Asked

How often is Fierce Guardianship drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1399 tracked games where Fierce Guardianship was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That figure is expected for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 454 total drawn copies, 61% were cast before the game concluded. The rest were either held reactively until the game ended or used as a discard outlet.

What turn does Fierce Guardianship typically get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 7, with the interquartile range spanning turns 5 through 7. That timing makes sense for a reactive counterspell: players hold it through the early game and deploy it against a high-value threat in the mid-to-late game. The on-curve rate of 4% confirms that almost no one is paying the full 3-mana cost. The free-cast clause is the operative mode.

Does casting Fierce Guardianship actually correlate with winning?

In 262 participations where Fierce Guardianship was cast, the normalized win rate was 36%, compared to 28% in the 1126 participations where the card stayed in the library untouched. That is a +7.7 percentage-point gap. With the current sample size this is a directional signal rather than a statistically conclusive finding, but the direction is consistent: resolving a free counterspell correlates with better outcomes.

Is Fierce Guardianship banned anywhere?

Yes. Fierce Guardianship is banned in Duel Commander (1v1), the Two-Legendary-Rule format, and Brawl. It is legal and unrestricted in multiplayer Commander, which is the format where nearly all the Playgroup Live data is gathered. Its free-cast clause is strong enough that dedicated high-powered 1v1 formats have specifically restricted it.

Why does Fierce Guardianship have such a low on-curve rate?

The card has a printed mana cost of {2}{U}, but its text lets you cast it for free whenever you control a commander. In practice, players almost never intend to pay three mana for a counterspell when Counterspell itself costs two. The 4% on-curve rate reflects that the full mana cost is essentially irrelevant: the card lives in hand as a zero-cost reactive piece and is deployed on the opponent's turn against a key threat.

Which commanders most commonly run Fierce Guardianship in this dataset?

The top commanders by raw deck count in the multiplayer dataset include Kenrith the Returned King, Kinnan Bonder Prodigy, Ms. Bumbleflower, Y'shtola Night's Blessed, and a cluster of five-color and Grixis commanders. That spread across mono-blue, Simic, Azorius, and multicolor archetypes reflects how broadly applicable a free counterspell is: any deck with blue in its commander's color identity is a candidate.