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collections_bookmark Part of Commander Masters format_list_numbered #6 red board wipe

Live Play Data

Fiery Confluence

· Sorcery · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1430

Decks Running

650

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

59%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=190

13%

62%

T6-9

15%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 16

On curve 10% (13 / 190 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

The "good card" funnel

1430 brought · 588 players

Brought to game

1430

Ever drawn

320

Reached battlefield

190

Still on board at game end

≥ -0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=177) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=942).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=117).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.8pp; 95% confidence interval -0.2pp to +13.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

346 instances

4.9%

Library

4.6%

Battlefield

54.0%

Graveyard

9.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Pantlaza, Sun-Favored 113 decks
2 Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid 51 decks
3 Kardur, Doomscourge 45 decks
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 35 decks
5 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might // Temple of Power 33 decks
6 Riku of Many Paths 19 decks
7 Torbran, Thane of Red Fell 18 decks
8 Wayta, Trainer Prodigy 16 decks
9 Judith, Carnage Connoisseur 13 decks
10 Solphim, Mayhem Dominus 12 decks

Card text

Fiery Confluence

Sorcery

Choose three. You may choose the same mode more than once. • Fiery Confluence deals 1 damage to each creature. • Fiery Confluence deals 2 damage to each opponent. • Destroy target artifact.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Rare · Illustrated by Salvatorre Zee Yazzie

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.