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Fiery Confluence

· Sorcery · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

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Times Brought

355

Decks Running

163

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Fiery Confluence

Sorcery

Choose three. You may choose the same mode more than once. • Fiery Confluence deals 1 damage to each creature. • Fiery Confluence deals 2 damage to each opponent. • Destroy target artifact.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Rare · Illustrated by Salvatorre Zee Yazzie

Final zone distribution

74 instances

6.8%

Library

6.8%

Battlefield

52.7%

Graveyard

4.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Pantlaza, Sun-Favored 35 decks
2 Sonic the Hedgehog 15 decks
3 Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid 9 decks
4 Kardur, Doomscourge 6 decks
5 Kaervek the Merciless 5 decks
6 Wayta, Trainer Prodigy 5 decks
7 Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh // Chandra, Roaring Flame 4 decks
8 Judith, Carnage Connoisseur 4 decks
9 Torbran, Thane of Red Fell 4 decks
10 Urabrask // The Great Work 4 decks

The "good card" funnel

359 brought · 149 players

Brought to game

359

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -2.9pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=32) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=223).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=20) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.0pp; 95% confidence interval -2.9pp to +15.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=44

14%

11%

55%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 23% (6 / 44 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

44 of 100 times cast 44%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 660,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.