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Flare of Denial

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

140

Decks Running

In Decks

685

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

38 instances

5.3%

Battlefield

65.8%

Graveyard

7.9%

Exile

21.1%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

141 brought · 66 players

Brought to game

141

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -15.0pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=24) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=87).

Observed gap +3.8pp; 95% confidence interval -15.0pp to +22.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=25

12%

20%

64%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 10

On curve 0% (0 / 25 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 4%

25 of 100 times cast 25%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.