Playgroup.gg logo
Playgroup.gg EDH Tracker
collections_bookmark Part of Modern Horizons 3
Flare of Denial card art
Card Preview

Flare of Denial

{1} {U} {U} · Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)
1%
Decklist Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
334
Decks Running
152
In Decks
1216
Decklist Inclusion
1%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1
Card text
Flare of Denial card

Flare of Denial

{1} {U} {U}
Instant
You may sacrifice a nontoken blue creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Counter target spell.
Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Jason A. Engle

Final zone distribution

99 instances
2.0%
Library
4.0%
Battlefield
50.5%
Graveyard
11.1%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

335 brought · 154 players
Brought to game
335
Ever drawn
88
Reached battlefield
52
Still on board at game end
4
≥ -7.1pp

Players who cast this card win 35% of the time (n=48) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=200).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 46% (n=32) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.0pp; 95% confidence interval -7.1pp to +21.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=52
0%
T1
0%
T2
2%
T3
8%
T4
21%
T5
60%
T6-9
10%
T10+
Median 6.5 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14
On curve 2% (1 / 52 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 19%
52 of 100 times cast 52%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 650,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.