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Flare of Denial card art
Live Play Data

Flare of Denial

{1} {U} {U} · Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)
2%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
686
Decks Running
319
Median Cast Turn
7
Drawn → Played
58%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=99
0%
T1
1%
T2
3%
T3
11%
T4
16%
T5
57%
T6-9
12%
T10+
Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14
On curve 4% (3 / 99 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 29%

The "good card" funnel

687 brought · 306 players
Brought to game
687
Ever drawn
171
Reached battlefield
99
Still on board at game end
8
≥ -1.0pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=89) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=403).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 42% (n=63).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +9.5pp; 95% confidence interval -1.0pp to +20.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

203 instances
1.5%
Library
3.9%
Battlefield
50.7%
Graveyard
14.8%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games
Card text
Flare of Denial card

Flare of Denial

{1} {U} {U}
Instant
You may sacrifice a nontoken blue creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Counter target spell.
Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Jason A. Engle

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.