Live Play Data

Flare of Denial

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

494

Decks Running

233

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

56%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=70

19%

57%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14

On curve 3% (1 / 70 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 24%

The "good card" funnel

495 brought · 227 players

Brought to game

495

Ever drawn

125

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -4.9pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=64) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=293).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 47% (n=50).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.2pp; 95% confidence interval -4.9pp to +19.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

144 instances

1.4%

Library

2.8%

Battlefield

54.9%

Graveyard

11.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Flare of Denial

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken blue creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Counter target spell.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Jason A. Engle

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.