Live Play Data

Flare of Fortitude

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1444

Decks Running

660

Median Cast Turn

8.0

Drawn → Played

61%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=198

63%

T6-9

23%

T10+

Median 8.0 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 15

On curve 5% (8 / 198 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 16%

The "good card" funnel

1445 brought · 566 players

Brought to game

1445

Ever drawn

325

Reached battlefield

198

Still on board at game end

≥ +0.3pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=189) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=975).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=114).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.1pp; 95% confidence interval +0.3pp to +13.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

364 instances

2.5%

Library

4.1%

Battlefield

55.5%

Graveyard

6.6%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Giada, Font of Hope 55 decks
2 Winota, Joiner of Forces 12 decks
3 Arabella, Abandoned Doll 11 decks
4 Kaalia of the Vast 11 decks
5 Anti-Venom, Horrifying Healer 10 decks
6 Breena, the Demagogue 10 decks
7 Myrel, Shield of Argive 10 decks
8 Lightning, Army of One 9 decks
9 Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir 9 decks
10 Ardbert, Warrior of Darkness 8 decks

Card text

Flare of Fortitude

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken white creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Until end of turn, your life total can't change, and permanents you control gain hexproof and indestructible.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Winona Nelson

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.