bolt Game Changer on the MTG Commander Game Changers list
Gamble card art
Live Play Data

Gamble

{R} · Sorcery · Dominaria Remastered (DMR)
7%
Live Inclusion
Times Brought
3659
Decks Running
1578
Median Cast Turn
5.0
Drawn → Played
72%
Format

First-cast turn

n=614
15%
T1
10%
T2
11%
T3
13%
T4
14%
T5
32%
T6-9
5%
T10+
Median 5.0 P25 2 · P75 6 · max 14
On curve 15% (94 / 614 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 54%

The "good card" funnel

3659 brought · 1128 players
Brought to game
3659
Ever drawn
858
Reached battlefield
614
Still on board at game end
23
≥ +7.0pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=554) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=2283).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=217).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +11.0pp; 95% confidence interval +7.0pp to +15.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

971 instances
4.5%
Library
2.4%
Battlefield
66.0%
Graveyard
11.0%
Exile
Card text
Gamble card

Gamble

{R}
Sorcery
Search your library for a card, put that card into your hand, discard a card at random, then shuffle.
Dominaria Remastered (DMR) · Rare · Illustrated by Andrew Goldhawk

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.