Ghalta, Primal Hunger
40% of games where Ghalta, Primal Hunger resolved ended in a win for the caster, a +14.3 percentage-point lift over the 26% baseline for decks that never cast it.
Ghalta, Primal Hunger sits in 6% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. Its nominal mana cost is 12, but its cost-reduction clause means virtually every cast in the data arrived well ahead of that curve.
When drawn, Ghalta reaches the battlefield 72% of the time. Players who resolve it win at 40%, compared to 26% for participations where Ghalta stayed buried. That +14.3-point delta has a lower bound above zero in our data, making it one of the more reliable signals we see for a creature at this price point. Both sample sizes are healthy: 159 cast observations and 604 library observations.
The commander distribution is broad. Pantlaza, Sun-Favored and Gishath, Sun's Avatar lead the list, but Ghalta appears across mono-green stompy builds, Gruul aggro, and a range of creature-heavy piles that can turn the Elder Dinosaur's power-counting clause into a turn-4 or turn-5 cast. The data is well-spread: 410 distinct players have brought Ghalta to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 5% of all instances.
- 6% of tracked Commander decks include Ghalta, Primal Hunger
- 40% win rate when Ghalta resolves, vs 26% when it stays in the library
- T7 median first-cast turn, despite a printed cost of 12 mana
- 72% of drawn Ghaltas reach the battlefield before the game ends
- 58% battlefield stickiness once cast
- 97% of casts arrived ahead of the nominal curve via cost reduction
First-cast turn
n=175The "good card" funnel
985 brought · 410 playersOf 985 Ghaltas brought to games, 242 were drawn, 175 of those were cast, and 58% of cast copies were still on the battlefield when the game ended.
Players who cast this card win 40% of the time (n=159) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=604).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=66) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +14.3pp; 95% confidence interval +6.7pp to +21.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
335 instancesMost singleton cards in a 100-card deck never leave the library, but Ghalta bucks that trend: a large share of observed copies finish on the battlefield, and a meaningful cluster end in the graveyard after being answered or sacrificed.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Pantlaza, Sun-Favored
60 decks
-
2
Gishath, Sun's Avatar
48 decks
-
3
Bello, Bard of the Brambles
42 decks
-
4
Ghalta, Primal Hunger
27 decks
-
5
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
23 decks
-
6
Dina, Essence Brewer
11 decks
-
7
Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers
11 decks
-
8
Eddie Brock // Venom, Lethal Protector
10 decks
-
9
Eshki, Temur's Roar
10 decks
-
10
Kona, Rescue Beastie
9 decks
Dinosaur tribal commanders dominate the top slots, but Ghalta spreads across mono-green stompy, Gruul aggro, and creature-heavy piles of many colors, reflecting how broadly its cost-reduction clause applies.