Live Play Data

Heat Shimmer

· Sorcery · Double Masters (2XM)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

186

Decks Running

109

Median Cast Turn

—

Drawn → Played

53%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=18

Not enough observed casts yet to show a reliable distribution.

The "good card" funnel

186 brought · 101 players

Brought to game

186

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -21.2pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=15) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=119).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=16).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +1.3pp; 95% confidence interval -21.2pp to +23.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

40 instances

2.5%

Library

2.5%

Battlefield

50.0%

Graveyard

17.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 32 decks
2 Deadpool, Trading Card 17 decks
3 Zada, Hedron Grinder 5 decks
4 Kardur, Doomscourge 4 decks
5 The Master, Multiplied 4 decks
6 Krenko, Mob Boss 3 decks
7 Obeka, Brute Chronologist 3 decks
8 Balefang the Unslayable 2 decks
9 Dong Zhou, the Tyrant 2 decks
10 Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds 2 decks

Card text

Heat Shimmer

Sorcery

Create a token that's a copy of target creature, except it has haste and "At the beginning of the end step, exile this token."

Double Masters (2XM) · Rare · Illustrated by Franz Vohwinkel

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.