Live Play Data

Heat Shimmer

· Sorcery · Double Masters (2XM)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

239

Decks Running

125

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

55%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=22

14%

27%

32%

T6-9

23%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 12

On curve 18% (3 / 22 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 43%

The "good card" funnel

239 brought · 117 players

Brought to game

239

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -22.2pp

Players who cast this card win 21% of the time (n=20) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=164).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 19% (n=18).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -4.3pp; 95% confidence interval -22.2pp to +13.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

46 instances

2.2%

Library

2.2%

Battlefield

50.0%

Graveyard

15.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 39 decks
2 Deadpool, Trading Card 17 decks
3 The Master, Multiplied 5 decks
4 Zada, Hedron Grinder 5 decks
5 Kardur, Doomscourge 4 decks
6 Krenko, Mob Boss 3 decks
7 Obeka, Brute Chronologist 3 decks
8 Smaug, Wicked Worm 3 decks
9 Balefang the Unslayable 2 decks
10 Bello, Bard of the Brambles 2 decks

Card text

Heat Shimmer

Sorcery

Create a token that's a copy of target creature, except it has haste and "At the beginning of the end step, exile this token."

Double Masters (2XM) · Rare · Illustrated by Franz Vohwinkel

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 700,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.