Live Play Data

Hero's Downfall

· Instant · Foundations (FDN)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

405

Decks Running

226

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

56%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=43

63%

T6-9

14%

T10+

Median 7 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 7% (2 / 43 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

The "good card" funnel

405 brought · 202 players

Brought to game

405

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ +0.1pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=41) , vs 15% when it never left the library (n=256).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 33% (n=31).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +12.7pp; 95% confidence interval +0.1pp to +25.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

96 instances

3.1%

Library

56.3%

Graveyard

11.5%

Exile

29.2%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Marrow-Gnawer 21 decks
2 Vincent Valentine // Galian Beast 6 decks
3 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 6 decks
4 The Scarab God 5 decks
5 Ashcoat of the Shadow Swarm 4 decks
6 Dihada, Binder of Wills 4 decks
7 K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth 4 decks
8 Satoru Umezawa 4 decks
9 Super Shredder 4 decks
10 Captain N'ghathrod 3 decks

Card text

Hero's Downfall

Instant

Destroy target creature or planeswalker.

Foundations (FDN) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Chris Rallis

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.