Live Play Data

Lightning Bolt

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

10%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

7158

Decks Running

3227

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

72%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=1159

13%

15%

48%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 20

On curve 1% (12 / 1159 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

7166 brought · 2368 players

Brought to game

7166

Ever drawn

1617

Reached battlefield

1159

Still on board at game end

≥ +4.4pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=1119) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=4943).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=429).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.2pp; 95% confidence interval +4.4pp to +10.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

1800 instances

4.2%

Library

5.3%

Battlefield

60.5%

Graveyard

10.6%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Lathliss, Dragon Queen 212 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 166 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 134 decks
4 Krenko, Mob Boss 115 decks
5 Smaug the Impenetrable 101 decks
6 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 95 decks
7 Prismari, the Inspiration 49 decks
8 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 48 decks
9 Lightning, Army of One 43 decks
10 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 42 decks

Card text

Lightning Bolt

Instant

Lightning Bolt deals 3 damage to any target.

Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Milivoj Ćeran

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.