Lightning Bolt
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Instant
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Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)
77% of drawn Lightning Bolts are cast before the game ends, and the card lands in 903 of 10042 tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, with a median first-cast turn of 6.0.
Lightning Bolt appears in 903 of the 10042 distinct Commander decks that have played a tracked game on Playgroup Live, an 9% inclusion rate. That figure reflects red-identity decks specifically, since the card's single-red-pip cost keeps it out of every non-red pod by default.
When a copy reaches a player's hand, it is cast 77% of the time. The median first-cast turn sits at 6.0, later than you might expect for a 1-mana spell. That gap is structural: Lightning Bolt is an instant held for the right target rather than slammed at the first opportunity. The hand-to-cast data shows a median hold of 2 turns among drawn-and-cast copies, and only 34% of those copies are cast on the same turn they are drawn. Players are waiting for value.
The cast win rate is 31% versus 27% when the card sits unseen in the library. That +4.0 percentage-point spread is a directional early signal on a dataset of this size, not a definitive claim. The data is well-spread: 712 distinct players have brought Lightning Bolt to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than 1% of all instances, which strengthens confidence in the broader trends.
- 9% of tracked Commander decks include Lightning Bolt
- 77% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
- T6.0 median first-cast turn, despite costing just 1 mana
- 34% of cast copies are played on the same turn they are drawn, suggesting deliberate target selection
- 712 distinct players have brought Lightning Bolt to a tracked game
- 31% win rate in games where Lightning Bolt resolved
First-cast turn
n=290The "good card" funnel
1755 brought · 712 playersOf 1755 Lightning Bolts brought to tracked games, 379 were drawn, 290 of those were cast, and the near-zero battlefield stickiness is expected for an instant that resolves directly to the graveyard.
Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=276) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=1165).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=82) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +4.0pp; 95% confidence interval -1.6pp to +9.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
423 instancesMost Lightning Bolts end in the graveyard after resolving, which is exactly what you expect from an instant that deals damage and goes nowhere but the bin. The small battlefield cluster reflects a handful of copy or rebound effects.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Fire Lord Azula
47 decks
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2
Vivi Ornitier
45 decks
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3
Krenko, Mob Boss
36 decks
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4
Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied
30 decks
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5
Smaug the Impenetrable
30 decks
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6
Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness
17 decks
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7
Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno
16 decks
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8
Lightning, Army of One
16 decks
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9
Prismari, the Inspiration
14 decks
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10
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
14 decks
The top-commander list spans burn, spell-slinger, and creature-based red strategies, with no single archetype dominating, a sign that Lightning Bolt earns its slot in diverse red shells rather than one narrow build.
Lightning Bolt