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Lightning Bolt

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

645

Decks Running

355

In Decks

3106

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

171 instances

2.9%

Library

5.3%

Battlefield

63.7%

Graveyard

9.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Fire Lord Azula 19 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 16 decks
3 Krenko, Mob Boss 13 decks
4 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 11 decks
5 Lightning, Army of One 10 decks
6 Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno 7 decks
7 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 7 decks
8 Prismari, the Inspiration 7 decks
9 Deadpool, Trading Card 5 decks
10 Thor, God of Thunder 5 decks

The "good card" funnel

649 brought · 297 players

Brought to game

649

Ever drawn

155

Reached battlefield

120

Still on board at game end

≥ -0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=120) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=447).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 18% (n=35) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +8.3pp; 95% confidence interval -0.2pp to +16.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=120

26%

18%

38%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 15

On curve 2% (2 / 120 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

606 of 300 tracked games 99%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.