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Lightning Bolt

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

564

Decks Running

317

In Decks

3065

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

152 instances

3.3%

Library

5.3%

Battlefield

64.5%

Graveyard

9.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Fire Lord Azula 19 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 15 decks
3 Krenko, Mob Boss 11 decks
4 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 9 decks
5 Lightning, Army of One 8 decks
6 Prismari, the Inspiration 7 decks
7 Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno 6 decks
8 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 5 decks
9 Deadpool, Trading Card 4 decks
10 Judith, Carnage Connoisseur 4 decks

The "good card" funnel

568 brought · 271 players

Brought to game

568

Ever drawn

138

Reached battlefield

109

Still on board at game end

≥ -1.3pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=109) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=392).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 18% (n=29) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.6pp; 95% confidence interval -1.3pp to +16.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=109

26%

19%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 15

On curve 2% (2 / 109 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

532 of 300 tracked games 99%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.