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Lightning Bolt

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

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Times Brought

1354

Decks Running

679

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Lightning Bolt

Instant

Lightning Bolt deals 3 damage to any target.

Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Milivoj Ćeran

Final zone distribution

267 instances

2.2%

Library

5.2%

Battlefield

61.4%

Graveyard

10.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Krenko, Mob Boss 47 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 46 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 27 decks
4 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 22 decks
5 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 19 decks
6 Smaug the Impenetrable 19 decks
7 Deadpool, Trading Card 14 decks
8 Kratos, God of War 13 decks
9 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 11 decks
10 Prismari, the Inspiration 10 decks

The "good card" funnel

1360 brought · 560 players

Brought to game

1360

Ever drawn

254

Reached battlefield

184

Still on board at game end

≥ -3.1pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=159) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=869).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=56) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +1.0pp; 95% confidence interval -3.1pp to +5.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=184

14%

11%

17%

38%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 27

On curve 4% (7 / 184 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 41%

1635 of 300 tracked games 99%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 660,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.