Live Play Data

Lonely Arroyo

Land — Desert · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

216

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

3.0

Drawn → Played

76%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=44

27%

20%

14%

16%

T6-9

T10+

Median 3.0 P25 1 · P75 5 · max 14

Cast same turn as drawn 52%

The "good card" funnel

216 brought · 91 players

Brought to game

216

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 89% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -19.1pp

Players who cast this card win 19% of the time (n=41) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=129).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -5.9pp; 95% confidence interval -19.1pp to +7.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

66 instances

7.6%

Library

59.1%

Battlefield

12.1%

Graveyard

3.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Mendicant Core, Guidelight 14 decks
2 Whtz, the Bibliophile 14 decks
3 Narset, Jeskai Waymaster 4 decks
4 Brago, King Eternal 2 decks
5 Galadriel, Light of Valinor 2 decks
6 Hope Estheim 2 decks
7 Hylda of the Icy Crown 2 decks
8 King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring 2 decks
9 Malcator, Purity Overseer 2 decks
10 Shorikai, Genesis Engine 2 decks

Card text

Lonely Arroyo

Land — Desert

This land enters tapped. When this land enters, it deals 1 damage to target opponent. {T}

: Add

Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Common · Illustrated by Josu Hernaiz

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.