Live Play Data

Long-Lost Lances

· Artifact — Equipment · The Hobbit Eternal (HOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

351

Decks Running

144

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

70%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=46

24%

13%

37%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 11

On curve 11% (1 / 46 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 42%

The "good card" funnel

351 brought · 133 players

Brought to game

351

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 87% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -9.5pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=35) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=224).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 12% (n=17).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.3pp; 95% confidence interval -9.5pp to +20.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

71 instances

1.4%

Library

56.3%

Battlefield

14.1%

Graveyard

1.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Long-Lost Lances

Artifact — Equipment

Equipped creature gets +2/+0. During your turn, creatures you control that are equipped have first strike and vigilance. Equip {2}

The Hobbit Eternal (HOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Marta Nael

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 730,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.