Live Play Data

Mana Confluence

Land · Journey into Nyx (JOU)

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

900

Decks Running

497

Median Cast Turn

3.0

Drawn → Played

71%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

6% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live run Mana Confluence, with 71% of drawn copies reaching the battlefield and a median first-cast turn of 3.0.

Mana Confluence sits in 497 of the 8540 distinct Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, an 6% inclusion rate that reflects its role as a go-to five-color fixer. It pays 1 life per mana produced, a cost that matters far less than it reads across a 40-life Commander game.

Of 218 copies drawn across 723 tracked games, 71% were cast before the game ended. Median first cast lands on turn 3.0, and once it resolves, 89% of copies remain on the battlefield through end of game. Lands rarely die, and Mana Confluence is no exception.

The commander distribution tells the clearest story: the top slots are dominated by five-color commanders like The Ur-Dragon and The First Sliver. Mana Confluence is a color-fixing land first and foremost, and that skew toward greedy, high-color-count decks shows up directly in the data.

At a glance

6% of tracked Commander decks include Mana Confluence
24% draw rate across tracked games, typical for a singleton land
71% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T3.0 median first-cast turn
89% battlefield stickiness once it enters play
313 distinct players have brought Mana Confluence to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=154

20%

19%

13%

14%

23%

T6-9

T10+

Median 3.0 P25 2 · P75 6 · max 13

Cast same turn as drawn 55%

The "good card" funnel

900 brought · 313 players

Brought to game

900

Ever drawn

218

Reached battlefield

154

Still on board at game end

137

71%

Of 900 Mana Confluences brought to games, 218 were drawn, 154 of those were cast, and the large majority remained on the battlefield through end of game.

≥ -6.4pp

Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=149) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=620).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 47% (n=61) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +0.5pp; 95% confidence interval -6.4pp to +7.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

242 instances

3.3%

Library

56.6%

Battlefield

15.7%

Graveyard

6.6%

Exile

Most copies of Mana Confluence finish on the battlefield rather than in the library, the opposite of the typical singleton pattern, because lands enter without being cast from hand and are rarely removed once in play.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Dragon 23 decks
2 Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge 13 decks
3 Betor, Ancestor's Voice 10 decks
4 The First Sliver 10 decks
5 Edgar Markov 9 decks
6 Kenrith, the Returned King 9 decks
7 Baylen, the Haymaker 7 decks
8 Kaalia of the Vast 7 decks
9 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 6 decks
10 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 6 decks

The commander list skews heavily toward three-color and five-color commanders, a direct reflection of Mana Confluence's core role as an any-color fixer for greedy mana bases.

Frequently Asked

How often is Mana Confluence drawn in a Commander game?

Across 723 tracked games where Mana Confluence was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That figure is consistent with what you'd expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 218 copies that reached a player's hand, 71% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Mana Confluence typically enter the battlefield?

Median first-cast turn is 3.0. The distribution skews early, with a meaningful cluster of casts in the first two turns when the card is in the opening hand. Players who draw it later still cast it readily since it enters untapped and produces any color immediately.

Does casting Mana Confluence correlate with winning?

In the 149 participations where Mana Confluence reached the battlefield, the normalized win rate was 26%, compared to 25% in participations where it stayed in the library. The delta of +0.5 percentage points is a directional early signal, but the confidence interval overlaps zero, so treat this as a correlation rather than a proven causal effect.

Is Mana Confluence banned anywhere?

Mana Confluence is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, Pauper Commander, or Premodern. It carries no ban or restriction in any tracked format as of its current oracle printing.

Which commanders most commonly run Mana Confluence?

The Ur-Dragon leads the list with the most decks tracked, followed by Kenrith the Returned King, Esika/The Prismatic Bridge, The First Sliver, and Kaalia of the Vast. The pattern is consistent: most top commanders here are three-color or five-color, confirming that Mana Confluence is primarily a tool for decks that need to hit every color reliably on curve.

How concentrated is the Mana Confluence data across players?

The data comes from 313 distinct players, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 4% of all tracked instances. That spread is a meaningful strength of the dataset: the numbers are not skewed by one or two power users running the card repeatedly, which makes the draw and cast rates more representative of the broader player base.