Live Play Data

Megaton's Fate

· Sorcery · Fallout (PIP)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

212

Decks Running

105

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

64%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=29

21%

62%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 45% (5 / 29 cast on T6) Cast same turn as drawn 19%

The "good card" funnel

212 brought · 102 players

Brought to game

212

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -24.2pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=26) , vs 33% when it never left the library (n=132).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -7.6pp; 95% confidence interval -24.2pp to +9.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

54 instances

1.9%

Library

3.7%

Battlefield

48.1%

Graveyard

18.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Dogmeat, Ever Loyal 50 decks
2 Plargg, Dean of Chaos // Augusta, Dean of Order 5 decks
3 Sami, Wildcat Captain 4 decks
4 Smaug the Magnificent 4 decks
5 Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER 3 decks
6 Fin Fang Foom 2 decks
7 Jaws, Relentless Predator 2 decks
8 Liberty Prime, Recharged 2 decks
9 Mr. House, President and CEO 2 decks
10 Rowan, Scion of War 2 decks

Card text

Megaton's Fate

Sorcery

Choose one — • Disarm — Destroy target artifact. Create four Treasure tokens. • Detonate — Megaton's Fate deals 8 damage to each creature. Each player gets four rad counters.

Fallout (PIP) · Rare · Illustrated by Chris Cold

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 730,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.