Live Play Data

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

302

Decks Running

128

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

61%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=79

11%

18%

15%

35%

T6-9

14%

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 17

On curve 35% (14 / 79 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 37%

The "good card" funnel

302 brought · 118 players

Brought to game

302

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 50% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -7.8pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=39) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=202).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 26% (n=24).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.6pp; 95% confidence interval -7.8pp to +21.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

71 instances

5.6%

Library

29.6%

Battlefield

28.2%

Graveyard

8.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter

Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, Muddle becomes a copy of up to one target nonlegendary creature you control until end of turn, except it has myriad. (Whenever it attacks, for each opponent other than defending player, you may create a token copy that's tapped and attacking that player or a planeswalker they control. Exile the tokens at end of combat.)

3 / 3

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Mythic · Illustrated by Andrew Mar

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.