Live Play Data

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

434

Decks Running

169

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

56%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=117

11%

25%

13%

32%

T6-9

17%

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 17

On curve 38% (29 / 117 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

434 brought · 154 players

Brought to game

434

Ever drawn

107

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 52% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -5.0pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=58) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=298).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 31% (n=47).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.8pp; 95% confidence interval -5.0pp to +18.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

113 instances

5.3%

Library

27.4%

Battlefield

27.4%

Graveyard

9.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 121 decks
2 Alania, Divergent Storm 11 decks
3 Bria, Riptide Rogue 7 decks
4 Obeka, Brute Chronologist 5 decks
5 Prismari, the Inspiration 4 decks
6 Vivi Ornitier 3 decks
7 Omnath, Locus of the Roil 2 decks
8 Veyran, Voice of Duality 2 decks
9 Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound 1 decks
10 Bohn, Beguiling Balladeer 1 decks

Card text

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter

Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, Muddle becomes a copy of up to one target nonlegendary creature you control until end of turn, except it has myriad. (Whenever it attacks, for each opponent other than defending player, you may create a token copy that's tapped and attacking that player or a planeswalker they control. Exile the tokens at end of combat.)

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Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Mythic · Illustrated by Andrew Mar

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.