Live Play Data

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

381

Decks Running

147

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

54%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=101

14%

20%

13%

33%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 17

On curve 42% (20 / 101 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

381 brought · 136 players

Brought to game

381

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 49% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -10.8pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=46) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=255).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=37).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +2.3pp; 95% confidence interval -10.8pp to +15.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

95 instances

6.3%

Library

25.3%

Battlefield

29.5%

Graveyard

8.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 107 decks
2 Alania, Divergent Storm 8 decks
3 Bria, Riptide Rogue 6 decks
4 Obeka, Brute Chronologist 5 decks
5 Prismari, the Inspiration 4 decks
6 Omnath, Locus of the Roil 2 decks
7 Veyran, Voice of Duality 2 decks
8 Bohn, Beguiling Balladeer 1 decks
9 Eris, Roar of the Storm 1 decks
10 Fire Lord Azula 1 decks

Card text

Muddle, the Ever-Changing

Legendary Creature — Elemental Otter Shapeshifter

Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, Muddle becomes a copy of up to one target nonlegendary creature you control until end of turn, except it has myriad. (Whenever it attacks, for each opponent other than defending player, you may create a token copy that's tapped and attacking that player or a planeswalker they control. Exile the tokens at end of combat.)

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Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Mythic · Illustrated by Andrew Mar

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.