Live Play Data

Opt

· Instant · Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander (TDC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

927

Decks Running

525

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

78%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

78% of drawn Opt copies are cast before the game ends, and decks that resolve it win 33% of tracked games versus 22% when it stays in the library.

Opt is in 7% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing in 525 of 7624 distinct registered lists. That selective footprint reflects its mono-blue color identity: not every deck wants it, but the ones that do treat it as a reliable cantrip at any stage of the game.

The clearest signal in the data is draw-to-play rate. 78% of drawn Opt copies reach the cast step, one of the higher conversion rates you will see for a one-mana instant. Median first cast lands on turn 5.0, which is later than you might expect for a one-mana card. That gap is structural: most copies are not in the opening hand and get cast whenever the mana is convenient, often held a turn or two before the moment is right.

Opt is legal in effectively every Constructed format and is a common in Commander product. Its ceiling in Commander is tempo and consistency rather than raw card advantage, which is why it clusters most heavily in spell-dense commanders that reward each cantrip individually.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Opt
78% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5.0 median first-cast turn across 188 observed casts
33% win rate in participations where Opt resolved
448 distinct players have brought Opt to a tracked game, spreading the data widely
16% of casts land on the on-curve turn 1, most copies arrive in topdeck rather than opening hand

First-cast turn

n=188

16%

36%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 16% (30 / 188 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 58%

The "good card" funnel

928 brought · 448 players

Brought to game

928

Ever drawn

240

Reached battlefield

188

Still on board at game end

78%

Of 928 Opt copies brought to games, 240 were drawn, 188 of those were cast, and the card resolves cleanly to the graveyard in the overwhelming majority of cases, as expected for a cantrip instant.

≥ +3.2pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=169) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=597).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=45) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +10.3pp; 95% confidence interval +3.2pp to +17.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

258 instances

2.3%

Library

3.9%

Battlefield

67.8%

Graveyard

12.0%

Exile

The vast majority of Opt copies end in the graveyard after resolving, which is exactly right for an instant that draws a card. The small library remainder represents copies that were in the deck but never meaningfully interacted with across the tracked game.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Opt's top-commander list spreads across blue-red spell-slinger builds, blue-black tempo decks, and mono-blue strategies. No single commander commands a dominant share, signaling broad but consistent appeal wherever cantrips are valued.

Frequently Asked

How often is Opt drawn in a Commander game?

In 895 tracked multiplayer Commander games where Opt was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is a typical draw rate for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 240 copies that reached a hand, 78% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder largely reflects copies drawn late in games that ended before a cast opportunity arose.

What turn does Opt usually get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 5.0, with the middle half of casts spread between turns 2 and 7. Only 16% of casts happen on turn 1, the on-curve turn for a one-mana spell. That low on-curve rate is almost entirely explained by the card not being in opening hands: when it is drawn, players cast it quickly. Same-turn cast rate once drawn is 58%, meaning the majority of drawn copies are cast in the same turn they arrive.

Does casting Opt actually correlate with winning?

Directionally, yes, though the dataset is still growing. In 169 participations where Opt resolved, the caster won 33% of the time. In 597 participations where it stayed in the library, the win rate was 22%. That +10.3 percentage-point gap is a positive early signal that resolving Opt is associated with stronger game outcomes, but treat it as directional rather than conclusive at this sample size.

Is Opt banned anywhere?

Opt is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, Historic, Alchemy, Timeless, Brawl, Gladiator, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal only in Old School, where the card's era predates the format boundary. It has no ban history in Commander.

Which commanders most commonly run Opt on Playgroup Live?

The top slot goes to Vivi Ornitier, with 15 tracked decks including Opt. Close behind are Alela, Cunning Conqueror and Fire Lord Azula at 13 decks each, then Lord of the Nazgûl at 11. The pattern is consistent: blue-heavy commanders that reward spell density or incremental scry effects are the primary homes for Opt.

How concentrated is the Opt data across players?

The dataset is well-spread. 448 distinct players have brought Opt to at least one tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a small fraction of all tracked instances. This breadth is a genuine strength of the data: the numbers are not skewed by one enthusiast running the same deck repeatedly.