Live Play Data

Pact of Negation

· Instant · Time Spiral Remastered (TSR)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

738

Decks Running

341

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

58%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

4% of tracked multiplayer Commander decks run Pact of Negation, and when it reaches a player's hand, it converts to a cast 58% of the time, with a median first-cast turn of 6.

Pact of Negation is a zero-mana hard counter with a deferred cost: pay {3}{U}{U} at your next upkeep or lose the game. That conditional makes it a precision tool rather than a staple, and the inclusion numbers reflect that. Across 7993 tracked multiplayer Commander decks on Playgroup Live, 4% include it, spread across 341 distinct lists.

The card's draw-to-play rate sits at 58%. That figure covers all instances where a drawn copy did or did not reach a cast state before the game ended. Games ending before a player can deploy a reactive instant account for a meaningful share of uncast copies. Median first cast lands on turn 6, which makes sense for a card held back as protection during a combo or win attempt rather than deployed early. Of 187 instances drawn across tracked games, 109 resolved as casts.

The commander distribution is notably spread. 284 distinct players have brought Pact of Negation to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 7% of all instances. That breadth suggests the card earns its slot on merit across a range of blue strategies rather than being propped up by one pilot's volume.

At a glance

4% of tracked multiplayer Commander decks include Pact of Negation
58% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T6 median first-cast turn, consistent with late-game protection timing
284 distinct players have piloted it in a tracked multiplayer game
38% normalized win rate in games where Pact of Negation resolved

First-cast turn

n=109

14%

18%

53%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 11

Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

738 brought · 284 players

Brought to game

738

Ever drawn

187

Reached battlefield

109

Still on board at game end

58%

Of 738 copies brought to tracked games, 187 were drawn, and 109 of those resolved as casts before the game ended.

≥ +2.2pp

Players who cast this card win 38% of the time (n=95) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=423).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 47% (n=73) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +12.1pp; 95% confidence interval +2.2pp to +22.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

212 instances

6.6%

Library

6.6%

Battlefield

45.8%

Graveyard

14.2%

Exile

Pact of Negation is an instant that resolves to the graveyard, so the dominant final zone is the graveyard for cast copies; the large library bucket represents decks where the card was simply never drawn.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 14 decks
2 Vivi Ornitier 14 decks
3 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 11 decks
4 Sauron, the Dark Lord 11 decks
5 Urza, Lord High Artificer 11 decks
6 Tymna the Weaver 10 decks
7 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 9 decks
8 Grand Arbiter Augustin IV 6 decks
9 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 6 decks
10 Krark, the Thumbless 6 decks

Kinnan and Vivi lead the list at 14 decks each, but no single commander dominates, reflecting that Pact of Negation earns its slot across a broad range of blue strategies rather than being locked to one archetype.

Card text

Pact of Negation

Instant

Counter target spell. At the beginning of your next upkeep, pay {3}

. If you don't, you lose the game.

Time Spiral Remastered (TSR) · Rare · Illustrated by Jason Chan

Frequently Asked

How often is Pact of Negation drawn in a tracked Commander game?

Across 645 tracked multiplayer games where the card was in the deck, Pact of Negation was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with typical singleton rates in a 100-card deck. Of the 187 instances that reached a hand, 109 were eventually cast, giving a draw-to-play rate of 58%. Uncast drawn copies largely reflect games that ended before the card was needed or the upkeep cost could safely be paid.

What turn does Pact of Negation typically get cast?

Median first cast falls on turn 6, with the middle 50% of casts landing between turns 5 and 8. That late-game clustering is consistent with how the card is used: held as reactive protection for a combo turn or a critical resolution, not deployed proactively in the early game.

Does casting Pact of Negation actually improve your chances of winning?

In multiplayer games on Playgroup Live, the normalized win rate in participations where Pact of Negation was cast is 38%, versus 26% in participations where it stayed in the library the entire game. That is a +12.1 percentage-point lift. The sample has 95 observations in the cast bucket and 423 in the library bucket, so this should be read as a directional early signal rather than a conclusive finding.

Is Pact of Negation legal in Commander?

Yes. Pact of Negation is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Vintage, and several other formats. It is not legal in Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Its absence from lower-power formats reflects both card availability and the oppressive ceiling a free counter can impose in shorter games.

Which commanders most commonly run Pact of Negation?

In tracked multiplayer games, the top commanders by raw deck count are Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy and Vivi Ornitier, each appearing in 14 tracked decks that include this card, followed by Sauron, the Dark Lord and Urza, Lord High Artificer at 11 decks each. The pattern skews toward blue combo and tempo strategies that want a zero-mana answer available on the turn they attempt to win.

How concentrated is the Pact of Negation data among a few players?

The data is well-distributed. 284 distinct players have brought Pact of Negation to a tracked multiplayer game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 7% of all instances. That spread is a meaningful strength of the dataset: the observed patterns are not being driven by one or two prolific pilots.