Painful Quandary
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Painful Quandary
Final zone distribution
163 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
37 decks
-
2
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern
25 decks
-
3
Tinybones, Bauble Burglar
21 decks
-
4
Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin
18 decks
-
5
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed
16 decks
-
6
Liesa, Shroud of Dusk
14 decks
-
7
Mogis, God of Slaughter
13 decks
-
8
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
11 decks
-
9
The Lord of Pain
10 decks
-
10
Nekusar, the Mindrazer
8 decks
The "good card" funnel
813 brought · 342 playersOnce cast, 83% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=71) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=466).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=30).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +8.4pp; 95% confidence interval +2.3pp to +14.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.