Live Play Data

Prisoner's Dilemma

· Sorcery · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

288

Decks Running

166

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

56%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=47

23%

47%

T6-9

19%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 15

On curve 34% (11 / 47 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 37%

The "good card" funnel

288 brought · 156 players

Brought to game

288

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -9.6pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=42) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=174).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 16% (n=35).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.0pp; 95% confidence interval -9.6pp to +19.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

90 instances

4.4%

Battlefield

52.2%

Graveyard

20.0%

Exile

23.3%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser 23 decks
2 Deadpool, Trading Card 14 decks
3 Magar of the Magic Strings 10 decks
4 Itazura, Lingering Wick 8 decks
5 Xantcha, Sleeper Agent 7 decks
6 Queen Marchesa 6 decks
7 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 6 decks
8 Alania, Divergent Storm 5 decks
9 Lorehold, the Historian 5 decks
10 Norin the Wary 5 decks

Card text

Prisoner's Dilemma

Sorcery

Each opponent secretly chooses silence or snitch, then the choices are revealed. If each opponent chose silence, Prisoner's Dilemma deals 4 damage to each of them. If each opponent chose snitch, Prisoner's Dilemma deals 8 damage to each of them. Otherwise, Prisoner's Dilemma deals 12 damage to each opponent who chose silence. Flashback {5}

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Serena Malyon

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.