collections_bookmark Part of Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate
River of Tears card art
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River of Tears

Land · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)
1%
Decklist Inclusion
Times Brought
167
Decks Running
106
In Decks
831
Decklist Inclusion
1%
Format

Final zone distribution

44 instances
65.9%
Battlefield
22.7%
Graveyard
2.3%
Exile
9.1%
Hand

The "good card" funnel

167 brought · 102 players
Brought to game
167
Ever drawn
37
Reached battlefield
31
Still on board at game end
29

Once cast, 94% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -10.7pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=30) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=101).

Observed gap +4.9pp; 95% confidence interval -10.7pp to +20.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=31
26%
T1
19%
T2
13%
T3
13%
T4
10%
T5
13%
T6-9
6%
T10+
Median 3 P25 1 · P75 5 · max 12
Cast same turn as drawn 43%
31 of 100 times cast 31%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 640,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.