Live Play Data

Smaug's Fury

· Instant · The Hobbit (HOB)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

189

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

8.0

Drawn → Played

50%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=20

45%

T6-9

45%

T10+

Median 8.0 P25 7 · P75 11 · max 17

On curve 0% (0 / 20 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

189 brought · 77 players

Brought to game

189

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -14.3pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=16) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=113).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 6% (n=16).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.8pp; 95% confidence interval -14.3pp to +25.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

45 instances

11.1%

Battlefield

42.2%

Graveyard

6.7%

Exile

40.0%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Smaug's Fury

Instant

Target creature gets +3/+0 and gains reach and first strike until end of turn.

The Hobbit (HOB) · Common · Illustrated by Andrea Piparo

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.