Live Play Data

Smaug the Magnificent

· Legendary Creature — Dragon · The Hobbit (HOB)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1203

Decks Running

463

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=321

13%

25%

16%

31%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 46% (80 / 321 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

1203 brought · 407 players

Brought to game

1203

Ever drawn

312

Reached battlefield

235

Still on board at game end

120

Once cast, 51% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -3.0pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=207) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=723).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 17% (n=61).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +3.7pp; 95% confidence interval -3.0pp to +10.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

347 instances

2.9%

Library

34.6%

Battlefield

32.6%

Graveyard

9.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Smaug the Magnificent

Legendary Creature — Dragon

Flying, haste Whenever Smaug attacks, he deals damage equal to the number of Treasures you control to any target. At the beginning of your upkeep, create a Treasure token.

4 / 3

The Hobbit (HOB) · Mythic · Illustrated by Francisco Miyara

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 700,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.