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Smaug the Magnificent card art
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Smaug the Magnificent

{2} {R} {R} · Legendary Creature — Dragon · The Hobbit (HOB)
0%
Decklist Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
234
Decks Running
99
In Decks
437
Decklist Inclusion
0%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

84 instances
2.4%
Library
40.5%
Battlefield
19.0%
Graveyard
9.5%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

235 brought · 89 players
Brought to game
235
Ever drawn
50
Reached battlefield
33
Still on board at game end
34

Once cast, 52% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -20.9pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=29) , vs 34% when it never left the library (n=133).

Observed gap -4.2pp; 95% confidence interval -20.9pp to +12.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=33
3%
T1
6%
T2
6%
T3
21%
T4
9%
T5
45%
T6-9
9%
T10+
Median 6 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 12
On curve 36% (7 / 33 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 33%
33 of 100 times cast 33%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 640,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.