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Smaug the Magnificent card art
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Smaug the Magnificent

{2} {R} {R} · Legendary Creature — Dragon · The Hobbit (HOB)
0%
Decklist Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
265
Decks Running
113
In Decks
487
Decklist Inclusion
0%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

97 instances
2.1%
Library
41.2%
Battlefield
17.5%
Graveyard
10.3%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

266 brought · 103 players
Brought to game
266
Ever drawn
56
Reached battlefield
38
Still on board at game end
40

Once cast, 53% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -18.8pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=31) , vs 34% when it never left the library (n=145).

Observed gap -2.3pp; 95% confidence interval -18.8pp to +14.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=38
5%
T1
5%
T2
8%
T3
21%
T4
8%
T5
45%
T6-9
8%
T10+
Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 12
On curve 39% (8 / 38 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 38%
38 of 100 times cast 38%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 640,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.