Live Play Data

Smuggler's Surprise

· Instant · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

855

Decks Running

380

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

60%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=114

11%

16%

59%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 1% (1 / 114 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

The "good card" funnel

855 brought · 332 players

Brought to game

855

Ever drawn

190

Reached battlefield

114

Still on board at game end

≥ +1.7pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=106) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=561).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 41% (n=72).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +10.9pp; 95% confidence interval +1.7pp to +20.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

228 instances

6.1%

Library

3.9%

Battlefield

53.5%

Graveyard

8.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Smuggler's Surprise

Instant

Spree (Choose one or more additional costs.) + {2}

— Mill four cards. You may put up to two creature and/or land cards from among the milled cards into your hand. + {4}

— You may put up to two creature cards from your hand onto the battlefield. + {1}

— Creatures you control with power 4 or greater gain hexproof and indestructible until end of turn.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) · Rare · Illustrated by Jonas De Ro

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.