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Part of Outlaws of Thunder Junction
·
Instant
·
Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)
Live Play Data
Smuggler's Surprise
·
Instant
·
Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)
3%
Live Inclusion
Times Brought
1165
Decks Running
498
Median Cast Turn
6
Drawn → Played
57%
Format
First-cast turn
n=145
1%
T1
3%
T2
3%
T3
10%
T4
16%
T5
58%
T6-9
8%
T10+
Median
6
P25
5
· P75
8
· max
14
On curve
1%
(2 / 145 cast on T1)
Cast same turn as drawn
29%
The "good card" funnel
1165 brought · 431 playersBrought to game
1165
Ever drawn
253
Reached battlefield
145
Still on board at game end
9
≥ -1.8pp
Players who cast this card win 34% of the time (n=133) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=760).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 41% (n=95).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +6.3pp; 95% confidence interval -1.8pp to +14.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
304 instances5.9%
Library
3.0%
Battlefield
51.6%
Graveyard
8.9%
Exile
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
The Ur-Dragon
63 decks
-
2
Ureni of the Unwritten
34 decks
-
3
Pantlaza, Sun-Favored
24 decks
-
4
The Wise Mothman
18 decks
-
5
Teval, the Balanced Scale
15 decks
-
6
Riku of Many Paths
13 decks
-
7
Beorn the Fierce
12 decks
-
8
Rainbow Dash
12 decks
-
9
Eshki, Temur's Roar
11 decks
-
10
Radagast of Rhosgobel
11 decks
Card text
Smuggler's Surprise
Instant
Spree (Choose one or more additional costs.)
+ 
— Mill four cards. You may put up to two creature and/or land cards from among the milled cards into your hand.
+ 
— You may put up to two creature cards from your hand onto the battlefield.
+ 
— Creatures you control with power 4 or greater gain hexproof and indestructible until end of turn.
— Mill four cards. You may put up to two creature and/or land cards from among the milled cards into your hand.
+ — You may put up to two creature cards from your hand onto the battlefield.
+ — Creatures you control with power 4 or greater gain hexproof and indestructible until end of turn.
Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)
·
Rare
·
Illustrated by Jonas De Ro
Frequently Asked
Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.