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Smuggler's Surprise

· Instant · Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

166

Decks Running

101

In Decks

907

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

44 instances

2.3%

Library

6.8%

Battlefield

54.5%

Graveyard

11.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Dragon 16 decks
2 Pantlaza, Sun-Favored 5 decks
3 The Wise Mothman 4 decks
4 Kenessos, Priest of Thassa 3 decks
5 Ureni of the Unwritten 3 decks
6 Anzrag, the Quake-Mole 2 decks
7 Bruce Banner // The Incredible Hulk 2 decks
8 Bugenhagen, Wise Elder 2 decks
9 Coram, the Undertaker 2 decks
10 Eshki, Temur's Roar 2 decks

The "good card" funnel

166 brought · 90 players

Brought to game

166

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -6.0pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=25) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=118).

Observed gap +11.4pp; 95% confidence interval -6.0pp to +28.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=25

20%

68%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 7 · max 11

On curve 4% (1 / 25 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

25 of 100 times cast 25%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.