Live Play Data

The Nipton Lottery

· Sorcery · Fallout (PIP)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

205

Decks Running

111

Median Cast Turn

8.0

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=30

53%

T6-9

33%

T10+

Median 8.0 P25 7 · P75 10 · max 13

On curve 7% (1 / 30 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

205 brought · 108 players

Brought to game

205

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -21.6pp

Players who cast this card win 15% of the time (n=21) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=124).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 13% (n=15).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -6.1pp; 95% confidence interval -21.6pp to +9.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

52 instances

3.8%

Library

3.8%

Battlefield

51.9%

Graveyard

15.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

The Nipton Lottery

Sorcery

Choose a creature at random. You gain control of that creature until end of turn. Untap it. It gains haste until end of turn. Then destroy all other creatures.

Fallout (PIP) · Rare · Illustrated by Olivier Bernard

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 770,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.