Live Play Data

The Theorist, Jace Beleren

· Legendary Planeswalker — Jace · Reality Fracture (FRA)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

434

Decks Running

195

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

78%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=87

16%

14%

13%

45%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 16

On curve 33% (12 / 87 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 41%

The "good card" funnel

434 brought · 163 players

Brought to game

434

Ever drawn

112

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 62% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +5.4pp

Players who cast this card win 47% of the time (n=76) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=282).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=23).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +16.9pp; 95% confidence interval +5.4pp to +28.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

122 instances

44.3%

Battlefield

27.9%

Graveyard

7.4%

Exile

20.5%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Jace, Multiverse Architect 41 decks
2 Tam, the Possibility 32 decks
3 Whtz, the Bibliophile 20 decks
4 Atraxa, Praetors' Voice 8 decks
5 The Ur-Sphinx 8 decks
6 Feroz, Ulgrotha's Warden 4 decks
7 Bard, King of Dale 3 decks
8 Denzilore Fatehold 3 decks
9 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy // Jace, Telepath Unbound 3 decks
10 Lyra, Tolarian Archangel 3 decks

Card text

The Theorist, Jace Beleren

Legendary Planeswalker — Jace

At the beginning of each opponent's draw step, you draw a card. +1: Create a 1/1 blue Illusion creature token. −2: For each opponent, return up to one target artifact or creature that player controls to its owner's hand. −6: Draw three cards. Then put X +1/+1 counters on each creature you control, where X is the number of cards in your hand.

Loyalty 3

Reality Fracture (FRA) · Mythic · Illustrated by Ekaterina Burmak

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.