There and Back Again
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
There and Back Again
Final zone distribution
166 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Tom Bombadil
73 decks
-
2
Smaug the Magnificent
46 decks
-
3
Thorin, King of Durin's Folk
35 decks
-
4
Sauron, the Dark Lord
30 decks
-
5
Smaug the Impenetrable
25 decks
-
6
Knuckles the Echidna
12 decks
-
7
Terra, Magical Adept // Esper Terra
10 decks
-
8
Magda, Brazen Outlaw
8 decks
-
9
Smaug, Wicked Worm
7 decks
-
10
Korvold, Fae-Cursed King
6 decks
The "good card" funnel
812 brought · 333 playersOnce cast, 51% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=96) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=575).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=53).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +4.0pp; 95% confidence interval -1.4pp to +9.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.