Live Play Data

Thrill of Possibility

· Instant · Foundations (FDN)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1266

Decks Running

693

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

72%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

72% of drawn Thrill of Possibility copies are cast before the game ends, and games where it resolves show a +9.3 percentage-point win-rate lift over games where it never left the library.

Thrill of Possibility sits in 7% of the 9544 distinct Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, a niche but deliberate slot in Red's card-draw toolkit. When it reaches a player's hand, 72% of copies are cast before the game ends, a solid conversion rate for a spell that asks you to pitch a card as an additional cost.

The cast-vs-library win-rate gap is the most interesting signal here. Games where Thrill of Possibility resolved carry a +9.3 percentage-point lift over games where it sat undisturbed in the library. Both buckets are well-sampled (186 cast observations, 847 library observations), which makes this one of the more meaningful deltas we track on a common. That said, Playgroup Live's dataset is growing, so treat this as a strong directional signal rather than a settled verdict.

The commander distribution is notably diverse. Thrill of Possibility shows up across Grixis spellslinger lists, mono-Red aggro, and Rakdos discard synergies, reflecting how broadly Red reaches for instant-speed card selection in Commander.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Thrill of Possibility
22% draw rate across tracked games
72% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5 median first-cast turn, spanning the mid-game window
+9.3pp win-rate lift in games where the spell resolved vs. stayed in library
583 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=203

12%

13%

12%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 14% (24 / 203 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

1268 brought · 583 players

Brought to game

1268

Ever drawn

282

Reached battlefield

203

Still on board at game end

72%

Of 1268 copies brought to games, 282 were drawn, and 203 of those were cast, with most resolved copies landing in the graveyard as the spell resolves and the game moves on.

≥ +2.7pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=186) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=847).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=73) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +9.3pp; 95% confidence interval +2.7pp to +15.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

319 instances

2.5%

Library

2.2%

Battlefield

66.8%

Graveyard

11.6%

Exile

The graveyard is the expected destination for an instant that draws two cards: nearly all resolved copies end there, with the tiny battlefield residue coming from unusual exile or copy effects.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Sauron, Lord of the Rings 40 decks
2 Fire Lord Azula 35 decks
3 Krenko, Mob Boss 33 decks
4 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 28 decks
5 Sauron, the Dark Lord 21 decks
6 The Beamtown Bullies 15 decks
7 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 12 decks
8 Kratos, God of War 12 decks
9 Terra, Herald of Hope 11 decks
10 Captain Howler, Sea Scourge 10 decks

The commander list spans Grixis spellslingers, Rakdos discard synergies, and mono-Red aggro, showing Thrill of Possibility earns its slot across a wide range of Red strategies rather than clustering in one archetype.

Card text

Thrill of Possibility

Instant

As an additional cost to cast this spell, discard a card. Draw two cards.

Foundations (FDN) · Common · Illustrated by Steve Argyle

Frequently Asked

How often is Thrill of Possibility drawn and cast in a Commander game?

Across 1205 tracked multiplayer Commander games, Thrill of Possibility was drawn 22% of the time it was in a deck. Of 282 instances that reached a player's hand, 72% were cast before the game ended. A drawn copy can go uncast simply because the game ended before the player had the opportunity, so the raw rate reflects both choice and game length.

What turn does Thrill of Possibility typically get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 5, with the interquartile range running from turn 3 to turn 8. The distribution is fairly flat across the mid-game: no single turn dominates, which reflects that this is mostly a reactive, instant-speed spell players fire when they have mana open rather than a turn-2 slam. Only 14% of casts landed exactly on curve (turn 2), mostly because the card rarely appears in opening hands.

Does casting Thrill of Possibility actually help you win?

The data shows a +9.3 percentage-point win-rate lift in games where Thrill of Possibility resolved (32%) compared to games where it never left the library (22%). With 186 cast-game observations and 847 library-game observations, this is a well-sampled gap for a common. Read it as a consistent directional signal: resolving this spell correlates with better outcomes.

Is Thrill of Possibility legal in Commander?

Yes. Thrill of Possibility is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Pauper Commander, Brawl, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, and most other formats. It is not legal in Penny Dreadful or PreDH. Its common rarity makes it especially accessible in Pauper and Pauper Commander.

Which commanders most often run Thrill of Possibility?

Sauron, Lord of the Rings leads the tracked decks with the card, followed by Fire Lord Azula and Kuja, Genome Sorcerer. All three are Grixis or Rakdos commanders that prize card velocity and discard synergies. Mono-Red commanders like Krenko, Mob Boss and Kratos, God of War also appear in the top ten, showing the card earns its slot even without discard payoffs.

How concentrated is the Thrill of Possibility data among a few players?

The data is well-spread. 583 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 4% of all instances. That breadth adds confidence to the trends above: the numbers reflect genuine community-wide usage patterns rather than one prolific player skewing the sample.