Live Play Data

Thundering Falls

Land — Island Mountain · Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1717

Decks Running

748

Median Cast Turn

2.0

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=434

36%

15%

20%

T6-9

T10+

Median 2.0 P25 1 · P75 5 · max 16

Cast same turn as drawn 71%

The "good card" funnel

1719 brought · 655 players

Brought to game

1719

Ever drawn

581

Reached battlefield

434

Still on board at game end

410

Once cast, 94% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +5.7pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=388) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=915).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 45% (n=127).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +10.7pp; 95% confidence interval +5.7pp to +15.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

651 instances

2.3%

Library

63.0%

Battlefield

17.1%

Graveyard

5.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Vivi Ornitier 76 decks
2 Flubs, the Fool 30 decks
3 Prismari, the Inspiration 21 decks
4 Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man 20 decks
5 Gandalf, Party Guest 18 decks
6 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 18 decks
7 Sauron, the Dark Lord 18 decks
8 Fire Lord Azula 17 decks
9 Iroh, Grand Lotus 13 decks
10 Alania, Divergent Storm 12 decks

Card text

Thundering Falls

Land — Island Mountain

(

: Add

.) This land enters tapped. When this land enters, surveil 1. (Look at the top card of your library. You may put it into your graveyard.)

Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM) · Rare · Illustrated by Grady Frederick

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.