Live Play Data

Twilight Prophet

· Creature — Vampire Cleric · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

731

Decks Running

373

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

65%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=109

13%

18%

57%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 17% (14 / 109 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 32%

The "good card" funnel

731 brought · 341 players

Brought to game

731

Ever drawn

168

Reached battlefield

109

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 54% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -5.6pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=106) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=473).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=52).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +2.8pp; 95% confidence interval -5.6pp to +11.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

185 instances

2.2%

Library

31.9%

Battlefield

27.6%

Graveyard

12.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Edgar Markov 81 decks
2 Obeka, Splitter of Seconds 47 decks
3 Clavileño, First of the Blessed 24 decks
4 Mirko, Obsessive Theorist 13 decks
5 Strefan, Maurer Progenitor 13 decks
6 K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth 10 decks
7 Liesa, Shroud of Dusk 10 decks
8 Abaddon the Despoiler 7 decks
9 Baron Helmut Zemo 7 decks
10 Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose 7 decks

Card text

Twilight Prophet

Creature — Vampire Cleric

Flying Ascend (If you control ten or more permanents, you get the city's blessing for the rest of the game.) At the beginning of your upkeep, if you have the city's blessing, reveal the top card of your library and put it into your hand. Each opponent loses X life and you gain X life, where X is that card's mana value.

2 / 4

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Mythic · Illustrated by David Astruga

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.