Live Play Data

Urza's Incubator

· Artifact · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1243

Decks Running

631

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

77%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

77% of drawn Urza's Incubators are cast before the game ends, with a median first-cast turn of 4 across 1166 tracked multiplayer games on Playgroup Live.

Urza's Incubator sits in 4% of tracked multiplayer Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing in 631 of the 15835 distinct decks that have played a live game. That narrow slice reflects the card's tribal specificity: it earns a slot only when a deck is built to exploit the {2} cost reduction, so its inclusion rate understates its importance to the decks that do run it.

When players do draw it, 77% of copies reach the battlefield. Median first cast lands on turn 4, one turn ahead of the card's mana value, suggesting it often rides early ramp rather than arriving exactly on curve. Once it resolves, 75% of copies remain on the battlefield through the end of the game, a sign that opponents rarely find it worth a removal spell.

The commander spread tells the clearest story: The Ur-Dragon, Giada Font of Hope, Gishath, and Pantlaza all appear at the top of the list, confirming that tribal payoff density drives adoption. Colorless identity means any commander can run it, so the ceiling is genuinely format-wide for any creature-type-focused strategy.

At a glance

4% of tracked multiplayer Commander decks include Urza's Incubator
77% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T4 median first-cast turn, one turn ahead of its 3 mana cost
75% battlefield stickiness once it resolves
502 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, spread across the format
31% win rate in games where Urza's Incubator reached the battlefield

First-cast turn

n=217

14%

24%

15%

13%

23%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 3 · P75 6 · max 17

On curve 40% (53 / 217 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

1243 brought · 502 players

Brought to game

1243

Ever drawn

283

Reached battlefield

217

Still on board at game end

162

77%

Of 1243 Urza's Incubators brought to multiplayer games, 283 were drawn, 217 were cast, and 75% of those resolved copies remained on the battlefield through end of game.

≥ -1.8pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=198) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=828).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=55) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.6pp; 95% confidence interval -1.8pp to +11.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

315 instances

2.9%

Library

51.4%

Battlefield

25.1%

Graveyard

5.7%

Exile

Most Urza's Incubators end games on the battlefield or in the graveyard after being removed. Very few copies finish in the library, meaning when this card enters a deck it almost always sees meaningful play before the game concludes.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The Ur-Dragon and Giada, Font of Hope lead the commander list by deck count, but the spread across Dragons, Angels, Dinosaurs, Demons, and Vampires confirms that any high-density tribal strategy is a candidate to run this card.

Frequently Asked

How often is Urza's Incubator drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1166 tracked multiplayer games where Urza's Incubator was in the deck, it was drawn 23% of the time. That is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of those 283 drawn copies, 77% were cast before the game ended. Uncast copies are largely a game-length effect rather than players choosing to hold it.

What turn does Urza's Incubator typically hit the battlefield?

Median first-cast turn is 4, against a mana value of 3. The interquartile range runs from turn 3 to turn 6, so early-game ramp is pulling a portion of casts ahead of curve while some later draws naturally land in the mid-to-late game. The same-turn cast rate is 36%, meaning players tend to hold it briefly rather than slamming it the moment it arrives.

Does casting Urza's Incubator actually improve your win rate?

In games where Urza's Incubator reached the battlefield, the normalized win rate is 31%. In games where it stayed in the library, the rate is 26%. The gap is +4.6 percentage points. The sample is reasonably sized, but Playgroup Live's dataset is still growing, so treat this as a directional signal rather than a definitive claim. Better-built tribal decks are more likely to include this card, which can inflate the cast-side rate independently of the card's own contribution.

Is Urza's Incubator legal in Commander?

Yes. Urza's Incubator is legal and unrestricted in Commander. It is also legal in Legacy, Vintage, Modern, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Pauper, or Alchemy.

Which commanders pair best with Urza's Incubator?

On Playgroup Live, the most-represented pairings are The Ur-Dragon and Giada, Font of Hope, each appearing in over 20 decks that include this card. Gishath, Pantlaza, Ashling the Limitless, Edgar Markov, and Zhulodok round out the top tier. The pattern is consistent: commanders that deploy a high density of a single creature type benefit most from the flat {2} cost reduction, and colorless identity means any of them can slot it in regardless of color.

How concentrated is the Urza's Incubator data across players?

The data is well spread. 502 distinct players have brought Urza's Incubator to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 23% of all instances. That breadth strengthens confidence that the numbers reflect format-wide behavior rather than one prolific player's preferences.