Live Play Data

Watery Grave

Land — Island Swamp · Star Trek (TRK)

38%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

2887

Decks Running

1458

Median Cast Turn

3.0

Drawn → Played

79%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

38% of tracked Commander decks containing blue and/or black run Watery Grave, and when players draw it, 79% of those copies reach play, with a median first-cast turn of 3.0.

Watery Grave sits in 38% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing in 1458 of the 3798 distinct decks that have played a recorded game. That figure covers only blue-black and multicolor shells where the land is even eligible, making it one of the most consistently included dual lands in the dataset.

The play pattern is straightforward: a land that enters untapped for 2 life is almost always played the moment it hits hand. 79% of drawn copies reached the battlefield, and the median first-cast turn lands on turn 3.0. A notable cluster of 702 total casts with 92% stickiness confirms that once Watery Grave resolves, it stays in play for the rest of the game. Lands rarely get removed, and this one is no exception.

The cast-vs-library win-rate delta is a positive signal early data shows decks that played Watery Grave winning at a higher rate than those where it never left the library. The lower bound of the confidence interval sits above zero, which makes this one of the more credible effects in the dataset so far. Still, treat it as a directional finding on a growing sample rather than a settled conclusion.

At a glance

38% of tracked Commander decks include Watery Grave
79% of drawn copies reach the battlefield
T3.0 median first-cast turn
92% battlefield stickiness once played
1003 distinct players have brought Watery Grave to a tracked game
+7.3pp win-rate lift when Watery Grave reaches play vs. stays in library

First-cast turn

n=702

22%

17%

12%

14%

24%

T6-9

T10+

Median 3.0 P25 2 · P75 6 · max 15

Cast same turn as drawn 56%

The "good card" funnel

2892 brought · 1003 players

Brought to game

2892

Ever drawn

892

Reached battlefield

702

Still on board at game end

646

79%

Of 2892 Watery Graves brought to games, 892 were drawn, 702 of those were played, and the vast majority stayed on the battlefield through end of game.

≥ +3.6pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=636) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=1625).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=166) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.3pp; 95% confidence interval +3.6pp to +11.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

1003 instances

3.3%

Library

64.4%

Battlefield

15.0%

Graveyard

5.0%

Exile

Battlefield is the dominant final zone for Watery Grave, which makes sense: lands almost never leave play once they resolve, and the data reflects that permanence across 2892 instances brought to tracked games.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans UB, Esper, Grixis, and five-color shells, confirming that Watery Grave functions as a generic blue-black fixing staple rather than a card tied to any single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Watery Grave drawn in a Commander game?

Across 2486 tracked games where Watery Grave was in the deck, it was drawn 31% of the time. That is above-average for a singleton in a 100-card deck, partly because mana-fixing lands tend to be prioritized in opening-hand decisions. Of 892 drawn instances, 79% were played before the game ended.

What turn does Watery Grave typically hit the battlefield?

The median first-cast turn is 3.0, with the distribution skewing early. A large cluster of plays lands on turn 1, consistent with players keeping hands that contain Watery Grave and leading with it. The 25th percentile is turn 2 and the 75th is turn 6, so most copies that reach play do so in the first half of a typical game.

Does playing Watery Grave actually improve your win rate?

In 636 participations where Watery Grave reached the battlefield, the normalized win rate was 29%. In 1625 participations where it never left the library, the rate was 22%. That is a +7.3 percentage-point gap. The lower bound of the confidence interval is above zero in the current dataset, which is an early positive signal. Read it as directional, not definitive, as the sample continues to grow.

Is Watery Grave legal in Commander?

Yes. Watery Grave is legal in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Standard, Historic, and most other formats tracked by Scryfall. It is not legal in Pauper or Pauper Commander because it is a rare. On Playgroup Live the stats here reflect multiplayer Commander pods.

Which commanders most commonly run Watery Grave?

The top commanders in the dataset by raw deck count are Y'shtola, Night's Blessed (29 decks), The Ur-Dragon (25 decks), and Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima (20 decks). That spread across Esper, five-color, and Sultai-adjacent commanders reflects how broadly useful a blue-black dual land is in multicolor strategies. The data covers 1003 distinct players, and no single player accounts for more than 31% of instances, so the spread is genuine.

How does Watery Grave compare to other blue-black dual lands?

Watery Grave is a shock land, meaning it enters untapped at the cost of 2 life or enters tapped for free. That flexibility makes it a near-universal inclusion in any Commander deck with blue and black in its color identity. The 79% draw-to-play rate and 92% stickiness on Playgroup Live are consistent with a land players almost never choose to hold back or sacrifice intentionally.