Aggravated Assault
40% of games where Aggravated Assault resolved ended in a win for its controller, compared to 27% when it stayed in the library. That +12.1 percentage-point lift is the clearest signal in the data.
Aggravated Assault sits in 4% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, a narrow but deliberate niche. Decks that include it are built around it, and the win-rate data reflects that intent: 40% of participations where the enchantment resolved ended in a win, against 27% for games where it never left the library.
The card costs 3 mana to put on the board, then another five ({3}{R}{R}) each time you want an extra combat. That activation cost means it rewards the mid-to-late game rather than the early one. Median first cast lands on turn 6.0, and fewer than a quarter of casts arrive exactly on curve. Most copies are drawn after the optimal window has passed, which partly explains why 56% of drawn copies reach the battlefield before the game ends.
Commander populations who run it skew toward aggressive red strategies: Grizzlegom, Cloud, Kratos, and Raph and Mikey lead the top-commander list. The common thread is a high creature density and ways to generate large amounts of mana in a single turn, unlocking repeated combat activations. The data is well-spread across 350 unique players, with no single contributor accounting for more than 3% of tracked instances.
- 4% of tracked Commander decks include Aggravated Assault
- T6.0 median first-cast turn, well into the mid-game
- 40% win rate in games where it resolved
- 75% battlefield stickiness once cast
- 56% of drawn copies reached the battlefield
- 350 unique players contribute to the dataset, spread across commanders
First-cast turn
n=102The "good card" funnel
930 brought · 350 playersOf 930 copies brought to tracked games, 183 were drawn, 102 of those were cast, and 75% of cast copies remained on the battlefield when the game concluded.
Players who cast this card win 40% of the time (n=91) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=624).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 13% (n=68) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +12.1pp; 95% confidence interval +1.8pp to +22.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
215 instancesThe library bucket is small here because most observed instances were actively drawn, cast, or moved. Aggravated Assault decks build around it, so it rarely sits completely untouched across a full game.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER
24 decks
-
2
Lightning, Army of One
18 decks
-
3
The Ur-Dragon
18 decks
-
4
Kratos, God of War
16 decks
-
5
Bello, Bard of the Brambles
14 decks
-
6
Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers
12 decks
-
7
Ureni of the Unwritten
12 decks
-
8
Kaalia of the Vast
11 decks
-
9
Krenko, Mob Boss
10 decks
-
10
Kratos, Stoic Father
9 decks
The top-commander list spans mono-red through five-color, but the through-line is consistent: aggressive creature strategies with mana-generation tools that can fuel repeated {3}{R}{R} activations turn after turn.