Alchemist's Refuge
37% of games where Alchemist's Refuge resolved ended in a win for its controller, a +10.3 percentage-point lift over the 26% baseline when the card never left the library.
Alchemist's Refuge lands in 7% of the tracked Commander decks in its color identity on Playgroup Live. It appears in 327 of 4369 distinct decks that have played a tracked game, a focused but consistent presence across Simic and Sultai pods.
The card's value proposition is tempo and surprise: for {G}{U} and a tap, every spell in your hand gains flash for the turn. That ability keeps opponents honest on every opponent's end step. When a copy reaches a player's hand, 75% of those copies are cast before the game ends, and 84% of cast copies survive to end of game. The median first cast lands on turn 5, with a flat distribution that stretches from turn 1 to turn 14, reflecting how players drop it whenever the mana opens up rather than saving it for a specific moment.
Data is spread across 298 distinct players, with no single contributor accounting for more than a small fraction of observations. That breadth gives the numbers here reasonable cross-table validity, even at this dataset size.
- 7% of tracked Commander decks in color include Alchemist's Refuge
- 75% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
- T5 median first-cast turn, spread evenly from turns 1–14
- 37% win rate in games where the Refuge resolved
- 84% battlefield stickiness once cast
- 298 distinct players in the dataset, indicating broad cross-table coverage
First-cast turn
n=141The "good card" funnel
697 brought · 298 playersOf 697 copies brought to games, 189 were drawn, 141 of those were cast, and the vast majority stayed on the battlefield through end of game, showing a clean and efficient journey from deck to table.
Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=137) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=440).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 40% (n=45) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +10.3pp; 95% confidence interval +2.0pp to +18.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
204 instancesThe overwhelming majority of Alchemist's Refuge copies end the game on the battlefield rather than the library, a direct reflection of how readily players cast it once drawn and how rarely opponents remove lands.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Zimone, Infinite Analyst
95 decks
-
2
Hakbal of the Surging Soul
38 decks
-
3
Ms. Bumbleflower
14 decks
-
4
Maralen, Fae Ascendant
8 decks
-
5
Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait
7 decks
-
6
Quandrix, the Proof
7 decks
-
7
The Astonishing Ant-Man
7 decks
-
8
Clement, the Worrywort
6 decks
-
9
Kruphix, God of Horizons
6 decks
-
10
Kadena, Slinking Sorcerer
5 decks
Zimone, Infinite Analyst dominates the commander distribution by a wide margin, with the rest of the list spreading across a diverse range of Simic and Sultai commanders, suggesting Alchemist's Refuge is a role-player in multiple archetypes rather than a card that belongs to one deck.