Live Play Data

Amphibian Downpour

· Enchantment — Aura · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

907

Decks Running

442

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

65%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=162

19%

54%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14

On curve 8% (10 / 162 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

913 brought · 396 players

Brought to game

913

Ever drawn

250

Reached battlefield

162

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 37% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -2.0pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=146) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=536).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=78).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.8pp; 95% confidence interval -2.0pp to +13.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

290 instances

4.1%

Library

20.7%

Battlefield

40.0%

Graveyard

13.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Amphibian Downpour

Enchantment — Aura

Flash Storm (When you cast this spell, copy it for each spell cast before it this turn. You may choose new targets for the copies. Copies become tokens.) Enchant creature Enchanted creature loses all abilities and is a blue Frog creature with base power and toughness 1/1.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Omar Rayyan

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.