Live Play Data

Ashling, Flame Dancer

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

680

Decks Running

305

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

55%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=101

16%

25%

13%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 6 · max 13

On curve 46% (25 / 101 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

681 brought · 272 players

Brought to game

681

Ever drawn

168

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 58% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -5.7pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=85) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=420).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 31% (n=68).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +4.3pp; 95% confidence interval -5.7pp to +14.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

193 instances

2.1%

Library

28.0%

Battlefield

34.2%

Graveyard

9.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Ashling, Flame Dancer

Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman

You don't lose unspent red mana as steps and phases end. Magecraft — Whenever you cast or copy an instant or sorcery spell, discard a card, then draw a card. If this is the second time this ability has resolved this turn, Ashling deals 2 damage to each opponent and each creature they control. If it's the third time, add {R}

4 / 4

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Mythic · Illustrated by Michal Ivan

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.