Card Preview

Ashling, Flame Dancer

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

307

Decks Running

163

In Decks

1047

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Card text

Ashling, Flame Dancer

Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman

You don't lose unspent red mana as steps and phases end. Magecraft — Whenever you cast or copy an instant or sorcery spell, discard a card, then draw a card. If this is the second time this ability has resolved this turn, Ashling deals 2 damage to each opponent and each creature they control. If it's the third time, add {R}

4 / 4

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Mythic · Illustrated by Michal Ivan

Final zone distribution

87 instances

29.9%

Battlefield

36.8%

Graveyard

10.3%

Exile

21.8%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

308 brought · 151 players

Brought to game

308

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 52% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -7.1pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=46) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=189).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=23) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.0pp; 95% confidence interval -7.1pp to +21.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=46

15%

20%

17%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 13

On curve 39% (9 / 46 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

46 of 100 times cast 46%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 660,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.