Live Play Data

Ashling, Flame Dancer

· Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

843

Decks Running

384

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

58%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=127

13%

21%

14%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 17

On curve 42% (27 / 127 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

844 brought · 339 players

Brought to game

844

Ever drawn

205

Reached battlefield

118

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 53% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -3.8pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=107) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=524).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=78).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.0pp; 95% confidence interval -3.8pp to +13.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

236 instances

2.1%

Library

26.7%

Battlefield

34.7%

Graveyard

11.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Ashling, Flame Dancer

Legendary Creature — Elemental Shaman

You don't lose unspent red mana as steps and phases end. Magecraft — Whenever you cast or copy an instant or sorcery spell, discard a card, then draw a card. If this is the second time this ability has resolved this turn, Ashling deals 2 damage to each opponent and each creature they control. If it's the third time, add {R}

4 / 4

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Mythic · Illustrated by Michal Ivan

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.