Live Play Data

Branching Evolution

· Enchantment · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

826

Decks Running

443

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Branching Evolution lands in 7% of tracked Commander decks and resolves to the battlefield 69% of the time it's drawn, with a median first-cast turn of 5.0.

Branching Evolution is a green enchantment staple for any deck that distributes +1/+1 counters. Across 781 tracked multiplayer Commander games on Playgroup Live, it sits in 443 of 6443 distinct tracked decks, an inclusion rate of 7% that reflects its tight archetype focus rather than broad appeal.

When it does reach a hand, 69% of drawn copies get cast before the game ends. Players do not sit on it. Median first cast lands on turn 5.0, a beat or two after the card's own mana value of 3, which matches what we see with most three-drops: players cast the card when the moment is right, not necessarily the first window available. Once it resolves, it sticks around 78% of the time, which is high for a non-hexproof enchantment and suggests opponents are rarely devoting removal to it.

The commander distribution is well-spread across 393 unique players, and the top commanders skew hard into counter-synergy strategies: Simic +1/+1 counter piles, proliferate engines, and token-doubling loops. If your deck cares about growing creatures with counters, Branching Evolution is a near-automatic inclusion.

At a glance

7% inclusion rate among tracked Commander decks, reflecting a narrow counter-synergy niche
69% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5.0 median first-cast turn, two turns after its mana cost of 3
78% battlefield stickiness once it resolves
393 unique players have brought it to a tracked game, a well-spread sample
23% of casts land exactly on curve at turn 3

First-cast turn

n=120

20%

13%

19%

39%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 13

On curve 23% (24 / 120 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 28%

The "good card" funnel

826 brought · 393 players

Brought to game

826

Ever drawn

174

Reached battlefield

120

Still on board at game end

69%

Of 826 Branching Evolutions brought to games, 174 were drawn, 120 of those were cast, and the large majority remained on the battlefield through the end of the game.

≥ -0.5pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=114) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=567).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 26% (n=49) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.7pp; 95% confidence interval -0.5pp to +15.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

202 instances

4.5%

Library

46.5%

Battlefield

23.3%

Graveyard

5.9%

Exile

Most Branching Evolutions never leave the library, the expected structural reality for a 3-mana archetype piece in a 100-card singleton deck. Among observed copies, the battlefield is the most common final resting place.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list clusters tightly around +1/+1 counter archetypes, with The Wise Mothman and Hakbal of the Surging Soul leading by deck count. The spread across 393 unique players means the data is not driven by any single pilot.

Frequently Asked

How often is Branching Evolution drawn in a Commander game?

In 781 tracked multiplayer games where Branching Evolution was in the deck, it was drawn 21% of the time. That is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 174 copies that reached a player's hand, 69% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Branching Evolution usually get cast?

Median first cast lands on turn 5.0. The distribution runs from turn 2 through the mid-game, with most casts clustered between turns 3 and 7. Only 23% of casts land exactly on curve at turn 3, which is consistent with players drawing it after the opening turns rather than holding it back by choice. The same-turn cast rate of 28% confirms players cast it fairly promptly once they draw it.

Does casting Branching Evolution actually help you win?

Decks that cast it show a win rate of 29% across 114 observed participations, compared to 21% when it stayed in the library across 567 participations. That is a directional positive gap, but the lower bound of the confidence interval sits near zero, so treat it as an early signal rather than a proven edge. The stronger read is that decks built around counter synergies are already competitive, and Branching Evolution is part of that engine.

How sticky is Branching Evolution once it hits the battlefield?

78% of resolved copies remain on the battlefield when the game ends. For a non-hexproof enchantment at 3 mana, that is a strong retention rate. It suggests opponents are either unable or unwilling to devote targeted removal to it, especially when the decks running it often have more threatening permanents on board.

Which commanders most commonly run Branching Evolution?

The top commanders are heavily counter-focused. The Wise Mothman leads in multiplayer decks, followed by Hakbal of the Surging Soul and Zimone, Infinite Analyst. Mono-green options like Bristly Bill, Spine Sower also appear. The common thread is a commander that places or multiplies +1/+1 counters, making Branching Evolution's doubling effect an immediate force multiplier.

Is Branching Evolution legal in Commander?

Yes. Branching Evolution is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. It has no known bans or restrictions in the formats where it is legal.