Live Play Data

Crux of Fate

· Sorcery · Commander 2017 (C17)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1163

Decks Running

488

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

60%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=155

14%

63%

T6-9

16%

T10+

Median 7 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 20

On curve 21% (21 / 155 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 28%

The "good card" funnel

1163 brought · 452 players

Brought to game

1163

Ever drawn

259

Reached battlefield

155

Still on board at game end

≥ -10.4pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=134) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=738).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=94).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -3.0pp; 95% confidence interval -10.4pp to +4.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

284 instances

3.9%

Library

4.2%

Battlefield

53.2%

Graveyard

7.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Dragon 191 decks
2 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 107 decks
3 Tiamat 25 decks
4 Rivaz of the Claw 18 decks
5 Scion of the Ur-Dragon 14 decks
6 Kaalia of the Vast 10 decks
7 Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon 7 decks
8 Korvold, Fae-Cursed King 6 decks
9 Nicol Bolas, the Ravager // Nicol Bolas, the Arisen 5 decks
10 Sivitri, Dragon Master 5 decks

Card text

Crux of Fate

Sorcery

Choose one — • Destroy all Dragon creatures. • Destroy all non-Dragon creatures.

Commander 2017 (C17) · Rare · Illustrated by Michael Komarck

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.