Live Play Data

Dreamtide Whale

· Creature — Whale · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1047

Decks Running

412

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

62%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=158

14%

18%

44%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 20

On curve 18% (22 / 158 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

1047 brought · 389 players

Brought to game

1047

Ever drawn

254

Reached battlefield

158

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 51% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -1.3pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=147) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=670).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 33% (n=90).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.2pp; 95% confidence interval -1.3pp to +13.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

276 instances

3.3%

Library

29.3%

Battlefield

31.9%

Graveyard

7.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Dreamtide Whale

Creature — Whale

Vanishing 2 (This creature enters with two time counters on it. At the beginning of your upkeep, remove a time counter from it. When the last is removed, sacrifice it.) Whenever a player casts their second spell each turn, proliferate. (Choose any number of permanents and/or players, then give each another counter of each kind already there.)

7 / 5

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Ron Spears

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 700,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.